RCEP成员国多次呼吁印度回归，如此执着为哪般？

黄昀昀

在2019年11月印度宣布退出《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）谈判之后，15个成员国于2020年11月正式签署RCEP，完成了8年“长跑”。不过在2020年12月7日，新加坡总理李显龙在一场活动中表示，希望印度未来重新考虑加入RCEP。

2021年，新加坡将接过东盟—印度对话协调国一棒。李显龙称，新加坡期待深化双方关系，就广泛课题进行探讨。除了新加坡，马来西亚、日本、澳大利亚等RCEP成员国领导人都曾向印度表示类似的期待。而这背后有着怎样的考量呢？

印度“退群”意在保护本国农业与制造业

在复旦大学南亚研究中心主任张家栋看来，国内利益集团的抵制是导致印度“退群”的重要原因之一。若加入RCEP，印度势必在国内进行改革。那就难以避免地触及少数大家族企业利益，因此他们并不欢迎RCEP。“这样一来，印度经济的供给端缺少竞争，效率不高;经济的消费端缺少规模，效益不足。这一经济结构既困扰着印度经济，也使得印度难以进行深层次的改革开放。”张家栋说。

中国商务部研究院国际市场研究所副所长白明分析，印度此举的根本原因是要保护其国内数亿人口所从事的农业和制造业。整体来看，印度的产业结构仍较为落后。世界银行数据显示，2019年，印度制造业占GDP的比重不到15%，在全球处于偏低水平。“在RCEP的协议下，各个成员国之间关税降低，将进一步扩大印度持续存在了几十年的贸易逆差，导致印度商品更难出口，国民经济或许陷入停滞。”

对于印度政府的抉擇，印媒《商业标准报》评论道：“印度承担不起如此做的后果。”

经济利益驱动东盟期待印度“回心转意”

尽管印度的中途退出，令RCEP成员国曾经做出的妥协付之一炬，但根据《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定领导人联合声明》，RCEP仍对印度保持开放。目前，印度还可以观察员身份参加RCEP会议以及和RCEP签署方举行经济合作活动。

为何成员国，尤其是东盟仍坚持不懈地喊话印度回归RCEP？说到底还是离不开“利益”二字。

众所周知，目前印度是亚洲成长速度最快的新兴经济体之一。在此过程中，消费市场得到升级，大众对中高端产品和服务的需求出现了缺口，而印度的产业仍较为低端。

反观东盟，由于承接了众多来自中日韩等国的产业转移，其大部分制造业已迈入中端阶段。2015年，东盟宣告完成产业升级。2019年，东盟10国GDP总量为3.14万亿美元，同比增长8.2%。

因此，在很长一段时间内，印度和东盟有条件在产业上实现互补。另外，虽然印度“爽约”RCEP，但其对发展与东盟的经贸关系仍持有较大的兴趣。11月12日，印度外交部高级官员达斯（Riva Ganguly Das）表态，印度下一步将重点发展与东南亚的贸易关系。

当我们将视线锁定在新加坡时，不难发现它是东盟中与印度商业、文化交流最密切的国家。2018年，印度总理莫迪在新加坡举行的香格里拉对话会上曾表示，“新加坡是我们走向东盟的跳板。几个世纪以来，它一直是印度通往东方的门户”。

根据印度政府公布的最新数据，2020～2021财年的上半个财年（4～9月），新加坡流入印度的外国直接投资达83亿美元，排名第一，远超第二名美国的71.2亿美元。2019～2020财年，新加坡为印度最大的外国直接投资来源地，占印度外国直接投资总额的30%。

在上海国际问题研究院亚太研究中心副研究员周士新看来，新加坡是地区重要的贸易自由港，相比其他东盟国家，印度的加入对其几乎没有负面影响，还可以加强新加坡在RCEP以及东盟中的地位，平衡各国的贸易比重。因此，新加坡在挽回印度方面显得尤为积极。

加不加入，是个问题

在业界，中印合作曾被认为是RCEP谈判获得突破的关键。因为中国与印度皆为亚太地区最大的市场，但贸易逆差又是横亘在双方间无法忽视的问题。

按照原有计划，若印度没有“爽约”，那么中印两国将首次打通多道贸易、投资壁垒。“这从开拓地区生产网络、便利地区贸易来看意义重大。”中国社会科学院亚太经合组织与东亚合作研究中心秘书长沈铭辉说，另外，这于对抗逆全球化和贸易保护主义而言，也具有一定的象征性意义。

在对外贸易方面，印度失去的机会不止RCEP。2019年6月5日，美国政府正式取消给予印度的普惠制待遇。这一举措将导致美国和印度的贸易关系变得更加紧张。据美方透露，美印之后也不会很快达成一份主要贸易协议。

那么，若印度未来选择回归RCEP，尚有机会抓住亚洲市场，尤其是中国市场。虽然印度国内不少人对中印贸易逆差表示担忧，但也出现了另一种声音：来自中国的资本也可视为对贸易逆差的弥补。

对于印度与RCEP的未来走向问题，上海国际问题研究院中国与南亚合作研究中心秘书长刘宗义从印度自身发展角度进行分析，他表示，如果印度的制造业有所突破，就有可能深化与东南亚国家的贸易，反之如果自身商品缺乏竞争力的话，就只会变成一厢情愿。

·来源：新华网、第一财经等

Unleash the Potential of RCEP Cooperation

By Kentaro Iwamoto

About two weeks after China signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade megadeal with 14 other Asia-Pacific economies， Premier Li Keqiang stressed the need to walk the talk.

“As a member of the RCEP， our country should actively promote the implementation of the agreement with our own actions， safeguard free trade and expand new space for win-win cooperation，” Li said at a State Council executive meeting in Beijing on Dec. 1， 2020.

The RCEP grouping of China， Japan， South Korea， Australia， New Zealand and the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations constitutes around 30% of global GDP and population. One estimate， published by the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics before the Nov. 15 signing， projected the deal could add US$ 500 billion to world exports in 2030.

The big three East Asian countries — connected by a free trade agreement for the first time — stand to gain the most， according to the study. Chinas exports are projected to rise by US$ 248 billion thanks to RCEP， with Japan seeing an extra US$ 128 billion and South Korea US$ 63 billion. Trade among them should account for a significant portion of the increase.

Another study by the Japan Institute of International Affairs indicated that South Korea may see the biggest economic contribution， with RCEP adding 6.5% to real GDP while Japan gains 5% and China 4.6%.

Sachs agreed that “China， Japan， and South Korea together form a technological powerhouse， and by joining together in RCEP， that technological dynamism of the three countries can be greatly enhanced.” But he also emphasized that ASEAN countries and the whole region should benefit from “peaceful cooperation， more foreign investment， and faster upgrading of digital and green technologies.”

All this hinges on ratification. But an Economist Intelligence Unit report predicted the required six ASEAN countries and three non-ASEAN states will approve the deal by the third quarter of 2021. For now， signatories are weighing how to get the most out of the accord.

In December， the South Korean government hosted a meeting with steel， automobile， machinery and textile industry associations — four sectors expected to reap the sweetest rewards. RCEP countries accounted for 53.2% of South Koreas steel exports in 2020， up from 46.8% in 2019. The steelmaking association expects a 4.3 million ton increase in ASEAN demand for the material in 2021， to 77.3 million tons.

South Korean automakers hope RCEP will help them eat into Japanese rivals 74% share of a Southeast Asian market with 650 million people and 3.5 million annual car sales.

Japanese carmakers， of course， want more ASEAN sales themselves. And Japans industrial equipment makers will enjoy tariff-free access to China on 86% of products， up from 8%， while South Korea will remove tariffs on 92%， up from 19%.

As for ASEAN states already taking advantage of existing FTAs， reduced non-tariff barriers will lead to lower import costs and greater competitiveness， according to Kensuke Yanagida at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. He said Malaysia， the Philippines， Singapore and Thailand can expect more electronics exports， for example.

Beyond tariffs， “RCEP harmonizes rules-of-origin provisions and establishes a single set of regional content rules， effectively creating a single market for intermediate goods that will promote the creation of supply chains across the region，” sid the EIU report. The think tank added that an integrated customs regime could drive foreign investment into smaller ASEAN markets where regulatory uncertainty is an impediment， such as Myanmar， Laos and Cambodia.

This acceleration of Asian trade and investment would follow a sharp global deceleration. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic， the World Trade Organization forecast in October that global merchandise trade volume would shrink 9.2% in 2020. The International Monetary Fund projected a 4.4% decline in world GDP for the year.

Other recent developments suggest China — one of the few economies set to post growth for 2020 — is determined to grab the reins of the global economy and gallop out of the COVID crisis.

Just before New Years， Beijing sealed an investment pact with the European Union. Days after the RCEP signing， Chinese President Xi Jinping also expressed interest in joining another trade megadeal， the 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership.

But some see complications ahead.

Raj Bhala， a distinguished professor at the University of Kansas specializing in trade law， noted that RCEP is less ambitious than the CPTPP and other major deals when it comes to “breadth of coverage” of goods and services， foreign direct investment and intellectual property.

Alex Capri， research fellow at the Asia-based Hinrich Foundation， made a similar point. Capri said RCEP is a welcome vision of multilateralism but warned the members “have disparate capacity to enforce ‘deep trade standards.”

“In general， the agreement allows individual countries to opt out and cherry pick key provisions. At best， its a tiered agreement，” said Capri， also a visiting senior fellow at Singapores NUS Business School. “Indonesia， for example， has asked for a two-year delay to implement trade facilitation provisions. Even as RCEP champions E-commerce， investment and dispute settlement， individual countries in the region are doubling down on data localization laws.” “Will the agreements provisions ultimately be broadly and uniformly enacted and enforced？ I doubt it.”

Limited ambition and uncertain implementation are not the only factors that could stop RCEP from tipping the global balance. Both Bhala and Capri pointed to Joe Bidens victory over Trump in the U.S. presidential election， and his desire to reassert American leadership.

Biden has not said whether he would consider joining RCEP or reversing Trumps decision to withdraw from what became the CPTPP. But in a Dec. 28 speech， the president vowed to “regain the trust and confidence of the world.”

Bhala predicted that Bidens first couple of years might not bring a major free trade move， “but thereafter youll probably see some stronger efforts.”

· Source： Nikkei Asia

· Original Title： RCEP： China to Gain as Trade Pact Ripples Across Post-COVID-19 World