Covid-19

Cao Yan

◆Abstract：In 2020， the global outbreak of Covid-19， due to the extremely strong infectivity of covid-19， therefore， in a region or a country， without human intervention， the epidemic cycle is about 3 months.This article is limited to 3 months， and the first three months of the 2020 covid-19 outbreak are classified as the first half of the outbreak， and April 1-June 30 are classified as the second half of the outbreak development. The experience has been summarized since the outbreak.According to epidemiology， with the continuous development of the epidemic， the number of people infected is increasing， and the number of people producing antibodies is getting larger. Those who produce antibodies， People who change from susceptible to healthy people， those who have produced antibodies can be put into the normal production activities of the global economy. By adopting scientific methods， the number of deaths caused by the outbreak can be increased. The mortality rate has fallen to the lowest level， and at the same time， economic production can be resumed immediately.Analyzed the impact of the covid-19 epidemic on the global economy， And put forward suggestions and opinions， It is hoped that it will play a role in the global victory over the epidemic and the better development of the global economy.On April 9， 2020， it was reported that in the central town of Gangelt， the first large-scale outbreak in Germany， scientists from the University of Bonn conducted an antibody test on 1，000 people from 400 families in Gangelt. After about half of the tests， the preliminary results found that Residents are infected with the virus， and 14% of the residents have antibodies to the virus， which means that 15% of people have been immunized， compared with the previous estimate of 5%. Professor Ganser Hartman， who participated in the study， said： "The 15% immunity rate is  not far from the 60% -70% of the group immunity we need"， so from this， the actual mortality rate in Germany may be As low as 0.37%， five times lower than the current level. This also shows that Germany can continue to maintain this level of feasibility and has a solid data base guarantee.This fact shows that the rigorous and serious Germans have once again made history.Covid-19 is not terrible. As long as it is controlled according to scientific laws， it is actually a flu.

◆Keywords：novel coronavirus; epidemic; alcohol; ethanol Chinese picture classification number： 330.24，R563.1，R183

1 Covid-19's first half summary

1.1 Covid-19 mainly reproduces in the human respiratory tract， alveolar and lung membrane cells， Calculated by breeding for 3 hours， Starting with infection with the first virus， Breeding in the human body， by the 5th day， it will reach more than 1 billion. Due to the large number of viruses， more than 90% of the virus will multiply in human oral mucosa， upper respiratory tract mucosa， bronchial mucosa， and alveolar lung membrane cells. Human breathing， a large amount of oxygen， carbon dioxide gas， and other gases （such as odorous gas exhaled by people with bad breath），Capillaries in the alveoli And in the alveoli， Through the alveolar and lung membrane cells， a large amount of virus is carried out of the body by the exhaled gas and exhaled into the air. Atthis time， more than 100 million viruses can be exhaled every day， and 3000 viruses can be exhaled out of the body and into the air every time. Because the covid-19 virus is only 0.125um， which is much smaller than pm2.5， that is， the fine particle suspension in the air of 2.5um， it is easy to flow with the air， and it is also easy to enter the uninfected people. Inhaled into the body due to breathing.

On April 1， "Nature" published an online peer-reviewed paper with a German research team. In the paper "Virology Evaluation of New Coronary Pneumonia Inpatients"， a total of 9 young and middle-aged inpatients without potential diseases were selected. The researchers sampled their nasal swabs， throat swabs， and sputum samples. The researchers found that within 5 days after the symptoms appeared in 9 patients， the sampled throat swabs were all positive and the viral load peaked before the 5th day. This means that in the early stages of infection， the neocoronavirus replication in the pharynx is sufficiently active. The researchers initially concluded that the neocoronavirus can actively replicate in the upper respiratory tract tissues and can reach high levels when the symptoms are mild.

1.2 For the covid-19 global outbreak， it can be basically divided into three stages， namely the early stage of the outbreak， the middle stage of the outbreak， and the last stage of the outbreak.

Although the situation is different for different people， such as the elderly， young people， children， different races， different blood types， etc.， the situation of each person is different， and the amount of virus infection and death are different， at this time， the general incidence and death of the virus are described.

1.2.1 At the beginning of the outbreak， The ratio of the number of confirmed diagnoses and deaths during this period was about 0.8%.In the United States， the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths on March 28 was 0.16%， while the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths on April 1 was 1.845%.The number of viruses that everyone exhales into the air， That is， the number of viruses per unit volume is small， In a crowded area， a public place with more staff， The number of viruses in the air is <0.2 / m3 ，That is to say， in a house of 20 square meters indoors， calculated at a height of 4m， the number of viruses in the air in the entire room is 15 or less. Normal breathing per person， 20 times / minute， each exhaled 500ml of gas， the total volume of gas inhaled in 8 hours is 4.8 m3 ， at this time， the number of inhaled viruses is about 9.6 viruses， There are many people with recessive infections， Most are asymptomatic infections. The majority of deaths are elderly people with complications.

1.2.2 In the middle of the outbreak， during this period， the outbreak occurred in a region or a country， The ratio of the number of confirmed diagnoses to the number of deaths reaches 2%-10%， With the increasing number of cases， in public areas where there are many people， Due to the large number of people infected， The number of viruses discharged into the air， The number of viruses in the air per unit volume also increases. At this time， the number of viruses in the air per unit volume of air can reach 55-100 / m3   virus， uninfected people， in such an environment ， the number of viruses inhaled in 8 hours can reach 264-480 viruses. These viruses， from one to multiply， take 24 hours to reach the number. Therefore， the number of people infected will increase sharply， and there are a large number of young people deaths.

Starting with 1 person infected with the first virus， the virus replicates every 3 hours. If it is not excreted， the number of viruses will reach 1 billion by the 5th day， but in fact， from the virus in the human lung， bronchus， the respiratory tract， throat and other parts are duplicated. When the number continues to increase， the virus is continuously discharged from the body due to breathing. Therefore， on the fifth day， the infected person discharges about 100 million viruses every day. Then， in a confined space of 1，000 square meters for public activities， with a height of 4m and a volume of 4000 m3 ， if the infected person stays in this space for 2 hours， the number of viruses discharged is 83 million viruses. After 2 hours， this space the concentration of virus in the air is 500 / m3 . If other uninfected people stay in this space for 10 minutes， the number of viruses that may be inhaled is 5500 viruses without wearing a mask. It is possible to reach the amount of dead virus. If wearing a N95 mask， the number of inhaled viruses is 275 viruses， reached the number of illnesses.

In the intensive care unit of the hospital， due to the concentration of a large number of late-stage patients， the number of exhaled viruses is particularly large， which can reach more than 110 / m3 ， even if the medical staff wear masks， More than 264 viruses can be inhaled in 8 hours， so a large number of medical staff will get sick， And the death of medical staff.

Therefore， it is recommended that in the ward in the hospital， It should be installed immediately to establish an air circulation system， It means that these wards， Especially the air in the intensive care unit， To be discharged continuously， And the air continuously heated by the high-temperature electric furnace is discharged to the outdoor， And constantly inhale fresh virus-free air from the outdoors. This is to reduce the patient's condition， reduce the probability of uninfected medical personnel infected with the virus， and achieve the purpose of most people's recessive infection. Therefore， during this period， the closure of the city is particularly necessary. This can allow more people to avoid a large number of short-term （within 8 hours） infections of the covid-19 virus. However， during this period， every corner of the epidemic area was filled with a large number of viruses， and the closure of the city could only reduce the incidence of severely ill patients. It may not affect the group's immunity in the epidemic.

1.2.3 In the late stage of the outbreak， the number of confirmed diagnoses continued to decline during this period， that is， the inflection point has already appeared， but the number of covid-19 viruses in the air of the epidemic area and the number of viruses in the air per unit volume may still be as high as 100 /m3 ，It may take 14 days， that is， after one incubation period，as the number of patients decreases， the number of cured people increases， the number of people exhaling virus into the air decreases， and the number of viruses in the air per unit volume of air shows a downward trend .

1.3 Calculated by the inclination of the sun from January to March 2020 in Wuhan， China and Iran Now the epidemic zone in the northern hemisphere is moving northward， And starting from the equator， Calculated by the inclination of the sun in the southern hemisphere， the epidemic is spreading to the countries in the equatorial and southern hemisphere. This also shows that the epidemic has certain climatic characteristics.

1.4 The situation in Italy confirms the scientific nature of the two papers， As of March 31， 2020 in Italy， the pandemic of covid-19 confirmed that "Suggestion using Alcohol vaporization or nebulization inhalation therapy for pneumonitis caused by coronavirus" and "Alcohol may be the most effective drug to treat and kill covid-19 in the lungs and in the body”， Confirmed the scientific nature of the two papers.

So far in Italy， it can be considered a national covid-19 pandemic， with an incidence rate of 2.6% and 1.5 million people calculated based on 60 million people. Among these 1.5 million people， the severe rate is 20%， or 300，000. 5% of the critically ill patients， or 75，000 people， and the mortality rate of 5% of the severe cases was 50%， which was 37，500 deaths. This is calculated based on the mortality rate of Hubei Province in China， and if calculated as 0.5% of the mortality rate outside Hubei Province in China， it will be 7，500 deaths. These things that have happened have not been discussed now.

Now with 60 million people in Italy to predict the situation of 300 million people in the United States， the death toll of covid-19 in the United States is 50，000 to 70，000， not 200，000， and it should not be 200，000. If alcohol is used for prophylaxis and treatment of covid-19， that is， two drinks per person per day， the death toll should be within 30，000. This is because after March 8， 2020， Hubei， China， the mortality rate suddenly dropped by 50%. Although no method was publicly reported， no special drug was reported.

1.5 Using alcohol is neither harmful nor risky to people， as long as you do not drink industrial alcohol or medical alcohol， you can drink white alcohol. This can save more lives. Why not promote it？

I really don't know whether authoritative departments and scientists value the identity of the paper author or value the paper more. It can save more people's lives. This is the scientific value of the dissertation. A dissertation that can serve humanity should be a good dissertation.

1.6 Analyze： about 15 million people in Wuhan， China， covid-19 pandemic， 2600 deaths， multiplied by 4 times to 60 million people， is Italy， the number of deaths is also multiplied by 4 times， 10400 deaths， comparable， 3 The month is over. Looking at the United States again， the Italian population multiplied by 5 times to 300 million， and the number of deaths was also multiplied by 5 to 52，000. The time will definitely end at the end of June. If we take advantage of science and technology， the death toll should be 30，000.

It is recommended that medical staff that has not been infected with covid-19， when entering the epidemic area to serve patients for the first time， wear N95 masks on the first day of work and should work for 2 hours. The probability of being infected with the virus is more than 98%. After 7 days， go to work again， this can produce antibodies.

Namo Amitabha， the God bless us.

2 second half prevention measures

2.1 The most effective antidote is alcohol. More and more studies have shown that 90% of covid-19 is in the respiratory tract， bronchi and alveoli. Therefore， alcohol in the respiratory tract has the same principle of killing viruses in outdoor air. It affects the s protein of the virus， changes the properties of the s protein， prevents its binding to ACE2， and achieves an antiviral effect.

2.2 There are still two days to 14 days， and there should be a turnaround. At present， Wuhan， China， Iran， Italy， Spain， New York， and the United Kingdom， according to epidemiological speculation， should have entered the inflection point and reached the "universal immunization" standard.

There will be no major outbreaks in Japan for the following reasons： First， it has been 93 days since human intervention， otherwise the three-month epidemic has ended， second， thetemperature is rising， and third， COVid 19， which has strong air transmission， has caused Most people have hidden infections， or asymptomatic infections. Do not believe in the national antibody sample survey， this Japan is good at， because the polls of the general election are the most accurate. As long as statistical random sampling is used to investigate 1，000 to 30，000 cases， large samples， the accuracy rate is more than 99%.

Impossible， Covid 19 in Wuhan， Italy， Spain， Iran， United Kingdom， New York， China， can be considered universally infected. Although the city was later closed， even the police on the street were infected due to the large amount of virus in the air. Therefore， the number of deaths in Britain and Italy is similar， about 20，000， let science confirm. It is extremely contagious， and the mortality rate for all people is similar to that of influenza， or it can be treated as ordinary influenza.

2.3 Thank you very much. I know that many drug tests first have an effect on the virus in the petri dish， and alcohol has no killing effect on the virus in the petri dish. Alcohol can kill viruses on the surface of objects， but alcohol cannot kill viruses in human respiratory tract.

According to the research data of all aspects， 90% of covid-19 is produced in the epithelial tissues of the respiratory tract and in the lung membrane cells of the alveoli.

The exchanged gas exhaled a large amount of virus through the breath.

In other words， a large number of viruses， that is， 90% of the viruses are in the respiratory tract， so alcohol can completely kill the viruses in the respiratory tract.

As everyone knows， the drug test is first to pass the virus cultured in the petri dish together with the drug. The drug first has to bear fruit on the virus in the petri dish before the second step can be carried out. The drug test is carried out on the animal， mainly the new drug on the animal body The side effects， the concentration of the virus in the animal's body， and the maximum concentration of the drug that the animal can tolerate before being tested in the human body.

Alcohol has a killing effect on covid-19 in a petri dish， mainly because of the hydrophobic group in alcohol on the viral S protein， affecting the impact of the virus on ACE2， and killing the virus. The side effects of alcohol in the human body and the harm to the human body no longer require drug testing.

In summary， alcohol is the most effective drug.

Some people drank a bottle of medical alcohol and rescued them， and some people also took chloroquine phosphate for rescue， but these people did not take the medicine as required in the research paper， and there is nothing wrong in the paper.

2.4 According to the latest global epidemic situation， real-time statistical data released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States shows that， as of around 6：30 on the 31st， Beijing time， there were a total of 777，286 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide， 37，140 deaths， and 164，446 cured cases . Death rate is 4.778%

The latest news of the U.S. epidemic， according to real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States， as of 06：30 Beijing time on March 31， A total of 160，020 confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia have been reported in the United States.

The number of confirmed cases ranks first in the world， with 2，953 deaths. Death rate is 1.845%

According to the real-time statistical data of the German "Daily Mirror"， as of 12：00 on March 30th， Beijing time， 62，435 cases of German new crown pneumonia were confirmed， an increase of 4，740 cases from the previous day; a total of 545 deaths; and a cumulative recovery of 9，121 people. 0.87% On March 31， 2020， China has a cumulative diagnosis of 82，617， a cumulative cure of 76，239， a cumulative death of 3，315 and a mortality rate of 4.012%.Domestic Hubei except Hubei： Accumulated diagnoses， 14，816， cumulative cures， 13081， cumulative deaths， 128 deaths， 0.86%Wuhan， China： 1456 accumulative 50006 cure 46002 death 2548 mortality rate 5.059%

2.5 No， the United States brings together all the wisdom of the world， and the latest results of all the nearly 10，000 covid-19 research papers in the world. It will be the most successful and scientific method to cope with， and the test of unbelief and other time.

As far as China is concerned， half of the research results of Chinese scientists' covid-19 research are in English， and they have all contributed to the United States. Therefore， the United States is currently the world's most dominant position in the scientific system and scientific mechanism， and no country can match it. It is worth pondering by other countries. There is no way out of the retreat on the Internet.

2.6 Regarding the problem of wearing masks：

2.6.1 The problem of wearing masks has two extreme cases around the world. The first is extreme left. In an area where there is neither epidemic nor imported epidemics， everyone is required to wear a mask. This is not only It is a huge waste. At the same time， wearing a mask for a long time will cause some harm to the body. For example， if there is no epidemic situation in the country， all primary school students will be required to wear full masks without an epidemic situation. If they wear a mask for 3-6 months， there will be great side effects， and some may not show up after 1 year.

2.6.2 The second is the extreme right. Just like in Italy and other countries， if there is an epidemic situation or the epidemic situation has reached a very serious level， it is very dangerous to not wear a mask. For example， the covid-19 virus is only 0.125um， and pm2.5 is 2.5um. If the air in the affected area contains a large amount of covid-19， without wearing a mask， a person may inhale 10，000 to 100，000 covid-19 viruses within 8 hours. However， if you wear a N95 mask， you will only inhale 500-5000 viruses. After the virus survives in the human body， it will reproduce a time difference of 36 hours; these 36 hours will cause the alveoli in the human body to damage 40-60 square meters. The alveolar area in the human body is generally 100 square meters. It is normally used for breathing of 40 square meters. When the alveolar area of the human body is damaged more than 60 square meters， the person's breathing is difficult， and the body is hypoxic. Due to the hypoxia， the body's immune system would normally produce antibodies within 7 days， but under hypoxic conditions， It can take up to 14 days to produce antibodies. Some people may die because of hypoxia and cannot produce antibodies in 14 days. Therefore， a hidden infection may occur because of wearing a mask in an epidemic area.

2.7 According to facts， the closure of cities in China， Wuhan， Iran， Italy and other countries in the later period has achieved a significant effect， allowing more people to inhale a low amount of virus， generating recessive infections and reducing mortality. Good results have been achieved in Germany， Singapore in Asia， Japan， and South Korea.

2.8 On March 4， 2020， Chinese scientists dissected 11 cases of death from covid-19 infection in Wuhan and found that the epithelial cells of the human upper respiratory tract were shed.

This phenomenon indicates that covid-19 may be immersed in human mucosal tissue epithelial cells through the S protein spot， and then destroy other cells around the epithelial cellsthrough the epithelial cells， causing the epithelial cells on the mucosa to shed. If the epithelial cells are directly destroyed， the shed epithelial cells will not be seen in the dissection， because it is difficult to identify the epithelial cells after the epithelial nucleus is destroyed. This phenomenon can reasonably explain the large-scale destruction of alveolar meningeal cells by covid-19 and the cause of asphyxia. At the same time， it can also reasonably explain that covid-19 destroys the human olfactory and taste system through epithelial cells， leading to the loss of  smell and taste.

Covid-19 invades the epithelial cells in the mucosa， so as long as there are mucosal organs， it will be invaded by viruses. For example， the disease destroys the sense of smell through the olfactory epithelial cells， making people lose their olfactory function; People lose their sense of taste; when the virus destroys the meninges through the brain mucosal epithelial cells， making people suffer from meningitis， affecting the function of the relevant areas of the brain; when the virus invades through the spermatogenic epithelial cells， destroying the spermatogenic cells; when the virus destroys the pancreas through the pancreatic mucosal epithelial cells ， The human immune system is destroyed; when the virus destroys the heart lining through the heart endometrial epithelial cells， causing people to suffer from heart disease; when the virus destroys the kidney through the kidney glomerular endometrial epithelial cells， and so on.

It shows that after the new coronavirus infection， after the alveoli are destroyed in large quantities， hypoxia can affect the normal work of the immune system. Hypoxia in the immune system is like the army on the battlefield in ancient times， burning the armys food and grass camp. Antibodies can be produced in 7 days， and the lack of oxygen cannot be produced until I4 days. If the antibody has not been produced in 14 days， most people die; only a few can still produce antibodies in 28 days without dying. Therefore， people who inhale oxygen should not easily cut off the oxygen. Once the oxygen is cut off， the immune system's combat power drops， and the virus restarts， which means death. This may be the case with the Chinese doctor Li Wenliang in Wuhan.

A reasonable explanation for this phenomenon is： a large number of villi on the mucous membrane are damaged， which leads to a dry cough without sputum.

2.9 Unlike SARS， which causes fibrosis in the human lung， it causes a large amount of mucus in the human lung. On March 26， George Washington University Hospital announced that the human lung was infected with covid-19 using 3D animation. Covid-19-infected lungs were in grade 23-25 branch trachea. One piece of alveoli below one branch trachea was completely destroyed by the infection. Instead of covdi-19 being evenly distributed in the lung， there was no diffuse infection in the lung.

2.9.1 There is a misunderstanding that if it is not resolved， the US mortality rate will follow that of Italy. Lets start with a case. Without a mask covid-19 infection， a lung examination is a piece of alveoli in the lungs damaged by the infection， and a mask was worn for more than 4 days before  death. The  lung  examination was a frosty glass and the lung was diffusely infected. Therefore， during the late outbreak， People who are not infected must wear masks， and those who are infected should not wear old-fashioned masks or new-style "Cao's masks"， otherwise mild patients will become severe and severe patients will become deaths. Preventing the spread of the epidemic is to reduce mortality. Infected people do not wear masks to reduce mortality. The two goals are the same， but at least doing so can directly reduce mortality， reduce the number of deaths， and directly save many people， Human life. What is the difference

between concealing or blocking information and crime？ A person starts replicating from the first virus invading the body， and exhales the covid-19 virus outside the body within 24 hours. If the amount of covid-19 virus inhaled within 8 hours is large， within hours of being infected， a person will exhale a large amount of covid-19 virus into the air. Because covid-19 is in the human body， more than 90% is replicated and transmitted in the human respiratory tract mucosa and alveolar lung membrane. Therefore， on the one hand， with the breathing， a large amount of virus is exhaled out of the body， which will reduce the amount of virus in the human body and produce asymptomatic infection. On the other hand， if the amount of virus excreted from the body is small， a large amount the virus multiplies and infects in the human body， which will produce many critically ill patients， the mortality rate will increase greatly， and the death toll will increase greatly. Wearing a mask can block a large number of viruses in the human body and greatly increase the mortality rate.

The purpose of preventing the spread of the epidemic is to reduce the mortality rate. The purpose of the infected person not to wear a mask is also to reduce the mortality rate. Directly save the lives of many people. If information is concealed or blocked， what is the same as a crime？

2.9.2 It is recommended that people， who have been infected with covid-19， install this device when wearing a mask， as shown in the schematic diagram of figure1. This can reduce the morbidity， reduce the morbidity of critically ill patients， and reduce mortality. Protect the lungs of people infected with covid-19 from being damaged by the virus less， and recover faster after being infected.

2.9.3 A person starts to replicate from the first virus invading the body， and will exhale covid-19 virus outside the body within 24 hours. If the amount of covid-19 virus inhaled within a short period of 8 hours is large， the person will be sent to the air within a few hours of infection The covid-19 virus is called out. Because covid-19 is in the human body， more than 90% is replicated and spread in the human

respiratory tract mucosa and alveolar lung membrane. Therefore， on the one hand， with breathing， a large amount of virus is exhaled out of the body， which will reduce the number of viruses in the body and produce asymptomatic infections. The virus's multiplication and infection in the human body will produce many severely ill patients， the mortality rate will increase greatly， and the number of deaths will increase greatly. Wearing a mask keeps a lot of viruses in the human body and greatly increases the mortality rate.

3 The relationship between the covid-19 explosion and global economic development

3.1 The global outbreak of Covid-19， for everyone in the world ，I s like crossing a river . The maximum time to cross a river is 14 days （the incubation period is 14 days）. People on the river have never been infected with covid-19. After being infected， people began to cross the  river. Very few people sank in the river and did not reach the opposite bank. If the number is estimated from the perspective of global immunity， the incidence rate is 2.6%， Italy has 60 million people， and the incidence is 156. 10，000 people. The mortality rate in the case of morbidity is Wuhan， China， with 2.5%， that is， 39，000 deaths in Italy and 15 million in Wuhan， for example. On March 31， 2020， the cumulative death toll was 2548， with a proportion of 1.7. / 10，000 people （total population of the region）. Those who reach the opposite side are immune， that is， they are vaccinated with "free" vaccines.

If the disease still occurs after being vaccinated， it proves that： first， covid-19 has mutated， and second， even if a vaccine is developed in the future， it does not make any sense.

Therefore， for people on the other side， from the medical and scientific point of view， since antibodies have been produced， From a susceptible group to a healthy group， Therefore， from the third day of infection with covid-19， and all those who have been diagnosed with infection and have recovered， These people can wear no masks and can work normally.

3.2 For the development of the global economy， the outbreak of covid-19 is equivalent to everyone taking a 14-day vacation. As more and more people are infected and producing antibodies， the global economy will develop faster and faster， to normal levels. Therefore， from Hubei Province of China， and its Wuhan City， Iran， Italy， Spain， New York， United Kingdom， etc.  can gradually enter the stage of normal production and life of the economy. No large-scale outbreaks of covid-19 will occur in these areas.

Therefore， it is very necessary to issue immunity to people who have been diagnosed as having been infected with covid-19 and issue a green safety and health card. For those who have received the green safety and health card， it can be used for economic production， Pioneer. Minimize the impact of the epidemic on the global economy.

4 Conclusion

4.1 Covid-19 infections， the first amount level， do not develop disease or produce antibody grade （inhalation of less than 10 viruses）; although infected with the virus， but no virus survives in the human body， so there is no graph. Because any virus or bacteria enters the human body， there is a problem of survival rate. For example， it is difficult to survive in the human body if only one virus or bacteria is eaten. Therefore， when only the number of viruses below the survival rate is infected， antibodies will not be produced， and disease will not occur.

4.2 The second amount level， non-onset but able to produce antibody grade， that is， recessive infection （inhalation of 10-80 viruses）; the second level is shown by the n0 curve. Suppose that only one virus survives and reproduces in the human body. Calculated with 3 hours of breeding 1 generation in 5 days， the number of viruses reached 1 billion， which increased exponentially， reaching point B in the figure. At this time， an alveolar cell is attacked with 10 viruses， then 100 million alveoli will be damaged， affecting the area of the respiratory membrane of 30 square meters， and there will still be 40 square meters of alveolar area for breathing， and the human body will not feel it. However， CT images of the lungs have appeared. At the same time， as the number of viruses further increases， Because a large number of alveolar cells in the alveoli are infected， A part of the virus enters the blood and cannot infect alveolar cells in the alveoli， Another part of the virus cannot infect alveolar cells in the alveoli due to breathing into the air. Therefore， the reproduction of the virus enters a flat phase， as shown in the BD curve inthe figure. On the seventh day， because antibodies were produced by the human body， a large amount of the virus was eliminated by the human antibodies， so the person did not feel the disease， Recessive infection.

4.3 The third amount level， but not death （80-256 viruses）; The third level is shown by the n1 curve. The patient is infected with a large number of viruses at one time， or within a short time （6 hours）， but the number of viruses has not reached the dead volume. At this time a large number of viruses multiply in the body， It also increased exponentially， As shown in figure J， the lung membrane cells on 100 million alveoli have been destroyed. From point H in time， That is， it takes more than 2 days， and the disease starts when less than 3 days. By the 7th day， the virus quickly destroys the human alveoli by about 200 million and less than 300 million. Due to the antibody produced by the human body， a large number of viruses are destroyed by the human antibody.

4.4 The fourth amount level， to death level （more than 256 viruses inhaled at a time）. The fourth level is shown by the n2 curve， the patient is one time， or within a short time （6 hours）， The amount of virus infected to death， The virus reproduces in the body， The exponential rise time is very short， Even within one day， the number of broken alveoli in the human body reached more than 100 million， as shown by curve K in the figure. At this time， the patient began to have difficulty breathing， breathing accelerated， more than 40 times per minute， blood oxygen saturation dropped to less than 93%， and various organs in the human body began to decline due to two reasons. One is hypoxia， which is because the heart needs a large amount of oxygen to provide energy for normal beating; the internal organs of the human body have the same medical principle. The other is carbon dioxide poisoning， a large amount of carbon dioxide in the body cannot be excreted， Accumulates in the body. And other toxic and harmful gases that are  normally discharged from the lungs， Toxic and harmful substances （such as alcohol can be excreted through the lungs， odor from the ketones of patients with ketosis， etc.）， cannot be excreted normally， which affects various organs. Eventually the patient died.

4.5 Because of from 1 to 256 viruses， need 24 hours， a total day.

Therefore， people who have been infected with the covid-19 virus， and those who have recovered， can avoid wearing masks， saving limited resources to medical personnel， and those who are not infected need to wear masks.

5 Suggestion and advice

5.1 First of all， the misconception that droplets spread to people is that as long as they do nt cough， cough， or sneeze， there will be no person-to-person transmission. In fact， covid-19 is airborne.

5.2 On January 8， 2020， China had a thesis that 1 person in a bathroom infected 8 people， but it does not mean that heat has no effect on the virus， because in the bathroom in China， the catering department， the closed place They are all in air-conditioned places that are most suitable for viruses， and where people gather in large numbers. Only the steam in the bath can't stop the spread of the virus.

5.3 Allicin has a broad-spectrum antiviral effect on viruses. More than 10 papers have been studied. Allicin has a very large effect on the spread of covid-19.

5.4 Alcohol can kill the covid-19 virus on the surface of the object， and can kill the covid-19 virus in the Petri dish. Alcohol must have a killing effect on the covid-19 virus in the human respiratory tract， and alcohol can be in the human body for a certain period of time for a certain period of time， alcohol is the most effective drug to kill covid-19 in the body. There are other drugs that can prevent covid-19 should be recommended， rather than misleading people to do nothing about covid-19.

5.5 To say this is mainly to prevent a global pandemic that may occur again in the future， rather than to blame the current behavior.

5.6 Propaganda should be carried out scientifically， neither information should be concealed， nor should information be exaggerated. For covid-19， its mystery should be exaggerated， nothing can be done， and no medicine will be effective， "only wait for death". Exaggerating information is more abhorrent than concealing information， causing more people to fear covid-19 and causing unnecessary panic among the global population. In fact， many western medicines and Chinese medicines， although not special effects medicines， have a certain effect on preventing covid-19. It can only be said that there is no strict scientific confirmation of the effect， and it still needs to be further verified. People should be advised to try it carefully. The main propaganda method is to alleviate the tension of the people around the world.

5.7 If scientific research papers are considered as long as they are valuable， more people should be involved in discussions， research， comments， reviews， and corrections and updates in practical applications. The scientific research paper itself is just like the advent of a new drug， which is subject to comprehensive testing and verification. Only in this way can science develop and progress better and faster. Journals are not judges; journals are just a medium that allows the content of papers to meet more readers. Therefore， in the future development of science， it is  still necessary to uphold the principle of allowing more papers to meet readers. Although peer review is very important， but there are also many disadvantages.

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