Opportunity or challenge

He Sijia

Do you still remember that old period， when you may easily access to any destination you want all over the world， buying materials， sub components from your long distance foreign suppliers， for your enterprise activities， or seeking new business project with your foreign partnerships？Yes， the day has gone， the form of our daily work， holiday off， or even the way your purchase daily supply， has been changed， since the year 2020. Now the people are getting used to engaging commercial activities through the internet， to work at home， take conference by using skype application， especially when youve been working at any project with international background.

The whole pandemic broke out since Jan， 2020（weve also investigating the origin back to Sept， 2019 or even earlier）. The peoples Republic of China has first reported the outbreak and managed to controlled the COV-19 virus inside China mainland， but then the whole world found it spreading out since then. People all over the world has been forced to be blocked indoor， wearing masks and keeping safe distance in pyblic， and most importantly， due to such huge pandemic that throughout different countries， in case of ‘cross-infection， almost all kinds of international interactions has been limited. As long as cov-19 issue exists， such ‘abnormal status will be continued.

would it be changed forever， even after this COV-19 crisis？

To figure out our future possibilities， history events may be taken as good references. The regulation of human history tells us that every time revolution comes right after crisis. Just like the case that ‘Black death plague has killed one third of European and changed European history during fourteen centuries， date back to 1910s， during WWI. As the Europe superpowers fighting with each other， killing so much lives， a bigger evil has come quietly， which is believed of murdering more than forty to one hundred millions of people， named ‘Spanish flu（the origin of this flu is assumed as coming from north America）[1918 pandemic（H1N1 virus）， CDC introduction]. And some saying also believes that this flu attack also leads to finical crisis during 1920s-1930s.

What could we do about it？ To obtain such ‘bio-pandemic， maybe one day we finally managed to win the cov-19 virus， then just get back to our normal lives， to run international business partnerships just like the day before 2020？ or maybe the human civilization will be changed slightly， to accept some sort of ‘updated commercial format， then maybe even establish a new international commercial order， a new master， new rules.

1Bias and fear-human nature towards pandemic：

We may list a brunch of elements to discuss， figuring out a lot of variable quantities. The theme ‘humanity， which is not the main target to be criticized， but it may also be considered as a fact that happens during bio-crisis， and effect the between different countries. First thing to say behind ‘humanity， is that bias always exist， due to different racial， cultural; different developing levels within different countries/areas， such as education level， financial strength， pollical power， etc. For political reasons， almost every government will use their education system， media propaganda to enlarge the superiority of their own nation， and the negative aspects of others. Eventually， people will naturally have the thought that ‘our social system is superior than others， they have also been told that when something bad is happening， but its their enemy/competitors fault that caused such situation. As a result， the international partnerships deteriorate then.

During WW1， under the war status， the main superpower： Germany， France， the U.K， United States， have all chosen to blocked the very first flu infection cases in the beginning-news broadcasting control is considered reasonable and necessary. The majority within military also naturally comes up with the opinion that there is just a ‘common flu during the right season， while no one has ever thought that such flu is probably more deadly than battlefield casualties. The only Exception is Spanish—as a neutral country， their media system chose to broadcast the early case daily. But however， such positive attitude didnt make too much praise. The international superpower media has finally chosen the word ‘Spanish flu to name this pandemic. That is the 1918 version of bias publicity towards international pandemic， just the same as 2020s cov-19 pandemic， which has been first reported in Wuhan， China. Fortunately， unlike Spanish in 1918， China managed to survived the disgracing situation then.

My own experience has also confirmed such nature bias. During Spring festival in January， 2020， I was in Japan， finished my main project phase before vocation off， I decided to take an off in Tokyo. Just by January 19th when Ive checked in hotel and turn on TV， I saw the broadcasting news by NHK， tells that a danger virus shows up in Wuhan， probably over 100 infected. And they were also telling local people that in Japan such thing will never be happened like this. In next few days， as confirmed infected number grows up， the criticizing comments towards China also goes up， even when I was having sushi dinner， the old lady owner asked me about this ‘pandemic within China and if I was afraid of going back. Which was embarrassing because she was just kindly mentioned and really concerned on me， as I cannot make any comments on such topic because indeed China was the only country that reported these cov-19 cases at the beginning. Then， after April， weve confirmed the spreading of worldwide， and most countries has failed to control the pandemic situation and started to feel disgraced， thats the later story.

The changes of commercial activities， international partnerships， or even our basic daily life， could be driven by a single fact， that people are just in fear of death. I will probably less worry about lacking of export clothing or exciting ‘Export entertainment， if Ive been taught that my own life is in risk. In 1943， Abraham H. Maslow has offered the public a vision of hierarchical theory of needs， a saying of five-phase needs level for human society as a single personality. Only when if ones basic needs of survival and safety needs （deficit or deficiency need） has been satisfied， one will seek for the next level of higher needs （defined as growth need）. During cov-19 pandemic， such theory has been tested and verified， fully been proved again. [A theory of human motivation：Psychological Review]

The year 2020 has taught us a guide of [how to keep alive against virus pandemic]. As an individual person， try staying at home and avoid public activities， keeping your storage of survival as much as possible. At the vision of government， isolation of infection is the only solution. In the beginning the western countries strongly against the ‘isolation-govern policy， which has first been used and proved effective by China mainland， in consideration of ideology， superpower competition， or the maintains of commercial activities. Soon after the rapid growth rate of infected and death number， the medical institutions across the world choose to give up bias and cooperate together， and people all over the world start to acknowledge the importance of isolation， during such period no one would say no to ‘new form of life， nor the ‘new form of company business， no matter if your social system is capitalism-driven or not. And eventually， we switched our lives to in-door entertainment， on-line business conferences， and shopping with the trend of no-touch local stuffs.

2International relationships and capital development under cov-19 pandemic：

The heavy competition between countries， especially between new-developed superpowers and those ‘old-money superpowers is a very big topic and which is not to be discussed here， but in generally speaking， is a cooperation-competition form. As both economies are considered ‘big rule and survive together， one cannot eliminate the other， but to maximize own profit and gain/keep advantages is the basic target. Before the pandemic year 2020， the ‘trade war between the United State and the Peoples Republic of China has already been started， but during cov-19 crisis， we may also see that the cov-19 topic itself has become a catalyzer to trade war that countries strike with each other. Politically， we can see both sides of interest-conflict power are using their media propaganda to give publicity to people during cov-19 outbreak timing， trying to gain superiority of public opinion; and more importantly， to share latest medical development progress with protentional partnerships/allies， get the international political cooperation. In commercial view， we may also see that developed group is trying to cut down the basic supply chain that may benefit the opposite side， such as in the beginning of Wuhan outbreak， some countries choose to cut down the supply of mask materials or medical equipment， then they claimed the medical supply from China is confirmed failed of quality control standard.

The content of international competition seems changed， or enhanced by this cov-19 pandemic， but the form and the intensity of competition may not be changed easily. Right before Jan 2020， the trade conflict between China and the United State has officially begun， the basic strategy is to adjustment the tax rate for export customs tariffs; then by Sep 2020， Huawei CPU supply has been officially cut down by the United State government; by April 2021， the ‘Xinjiang cotton also became a topic， almost all enterprises who has a Xinjiang cotton supply name in list are forced to make the statement of boycott Xinjiang cotton by Better Cotton Initiative... compared with these die-hard conflict movements， I would say that the criticize engagement on cov-19 pandemic seems to be more like a battle of fame， rather than on real interests or profits.

There is no doubt that during 2020， the world economy has been decreased. According to the [2021 global economy development report] by IMF， the total amount of global GDP has decreased by 4.4%， 3.91 trillion USD， a total GDP amount of Germany in 2019. India is considered of around 10% decreased， while the United State and Brazil got 4.3% and 5% decrease， considering that these countries above has been proved failed to control the cov-19 issue. However， despite the current situation， China is still one of the increasing GDP countries， due to its fast respond and control on cov-19 pandemic.

The most damaged industry is travel industry， due to the isolation policy， travel to other countries requires a self-isolation from 2 to 4 weeks. The good part is that due to the fast respond in China mainland， pandemic has been controlled and even once eliminated， the needs of traveling aboard has been replaced with traveling inside China， bringing up the heat of local economy， to a certain extent. The public transportation industry is also taking heavy damage. According to the official data of Umetrip， the forecast recover date for global airline is 2023， that means the airline industry need to take 2-3 years to recover back to the level of 2019; while the internal airline is recovering since May 2020.

As our way of living has switch from out-door to in-door， therere also some industries got red-benefits. As the growth of in-door entertainment needs， internet software industry seems to have gained even more profits than before. A good sample is one of the most famous game entertainment enterprises Activision， which has shown their year 2020 financial report： 8.086 billion USD benefit， much better than the 6.489 billion USD during year 2019， despite the fact that their latest ‘punch product has received a lot of criticize on quality， people still buy it with their own action; Another huge internet company， Tencent， with its large amount of mobile or PC gaming projects， along with business-using social media apps， they have also claimed the total profit of 482.064 billion CNY in 2020， 25% increased by year 2019. --Not a surprise， as people are not recommended to go to the cinema anyway， what else could we do without video games. Besides， youll really need their apps for conference and online lesson for real business.

Here is my example as Im working in vehicle engineering industry. Such as one new generation vehicle of Nissan and Toyota， also along with China local vehicle brands， have all chosen to postpone the SOP timing for one or two months， as all engineering phase inside China has been frozen since Jan 2020， and then， soon after the global outbreak has been reported， the Japan/Europe engineer/material phase also been frozen， the total developing schedule soon became TBD for a period. Also， with such international cooperation project， our supplier support team from Korean requires 4 weeks of isolation， again lagging the schedule timing plan.

3Different economies（countries） towards cov-19：

People of different cultural background， difference believes， different form of government organizations， may have different response when facing same crisis. During cov-91 pandemic， we can have a clear view to see the different attitude and strategies from different countries to handle this crisis.

In early 2020， as the country that first reported and managed to maintained the low level of cov-19 spreading. Due to the reason that the outbreak point was just by the Spring festival- by that time， most Chinese people has finished the ‘Chunyun travel season， and according to the tradition rule， people should back to their home and celebrate with their family， which has become a very effective timing for the government to take any indoor isolation policy; also， the government system of China mainland is every effective towards such public crisis- as the central government has realized the seriousness of cov-19， almost every accessible gear was motivated to carry out government order and to prevent the spreading of cov-19. China has eventually made a fast respond and effective strategy， which is considered of becoming a positive sample for other nations/economies to follow.

While in later months after， as the international outbreak has been confirmed， some of the other worlds greatest economies/countries has shown us another picture. In concerns of the financial ‘side-effects， the isolation strategy was once not been taken as a positive solution-the capital enterprises cannot lose their profits for certain reasons， as well as the working class cannot lose their income for months; Until the keeping rising number for global effected and death rate that has greatly infected the economy， also deeply disgraced the pride of ‘old money superpower economies（countries）， the ‘limited isolation again been officially accepted as basic principle. For example， we may see the policy and the announcement from the United State of America and the United Kingdom leaderships in middle of 2020， along with the ‘non-cancel Olympics statement by the leadership of Japan. To comfort the basic needs of the working class， many of these countries choose to release cash directly to their peoples account， which seems to be nice and effective for short term， but the damage of ‘over-flood-going up for prices caused by super currency will continuously affect the global economy in the long term.

The action of these countries seems to be cruel， but the motivation is reasonable. First reason is their form of government. As a capital-driven government， different parties stand for their profit groups， and fight for their profits. Under such form， it is unlikely for a quick respond towards any critical issues. The approval for such ‘unusual cov-19 crisis will probably take a long term， even if the presidency power wants to. The deeper reason， which I believe should be the most important reason is that under the capital-driven political form， both parties of these countries， no matter which sides of profit group they worked with， will not willing to see the block of cities， which mean the ‘call-off of commercial activities， decrease of profits.

As an individual person， the different forms of living， which is driven by different cultural， may also be a cause to such phenomenon. Under the western cultural， the release of personality is more emphasized than the east （Asian） side. Facing the cov-19 pandemic， the ‘isolation policy is more likely to be considered as a bad idea- against human nature， and most importantly， out off work for a period means one cannot afford the bills and taxes， if you have no habits of saving money.

4The aftermath caused by cov-19：

Theres no doubt that the development for different industries have been， and will be changed and influenced in the next few years. The enhancement for IT industries， including indoor gaming（entertainment）， along with the industries related with such as communicating apps， online shops（delivery） will become a better ‘highland for capital inflow， which has been cleared seen in the year 2020.

Besides， the changes of our commercial activities， or our way of lives， probably be driven by the capital（company）， rather than cov-19 itself. If the capital owner found that work at home is more effective， would save more money without lose any current profit， they may still ask us to work at home- if your occupation is appliable to such situation.

The cov-19 has shown the weakness of our current form of global economy system. IMF forecast also shown that in the next decade the global GDP probably be deeply weakened， as we can already see the current super currency policy released by some of the world greatest economies（countries）， causing a continuously going up for basic prices， or housing prices， as a result. And as a chain of global market， the aftermath will be a greater burden to everyone.

For survival， or further development of an individual person， the aftermath stress expectable， but if you can stay positive， it is totally controllable. First thing that you need to understand is that negative attitude toward your work or life will not help. You may choose the direction of your career， occupations， or maybe the investment of your personal funding， shares， for next few years. The rising industries during or after cov-19 pandemic might probably be a reasonable choice.

In the view of nation， as a world huge economy power， the path to gain the opportunity， and to decrease the negative effects while facing cov-19， means taking good use of the superiority of public opinion， and then try to become a ‘more individual role that may protect the internal economy from the ‘world economy flood， or at least， try to find a healthier method to control the prices for basic pricing， decrease the damage to a lowest level. To achieve this， not only the develop of internal needs is required， but also full set of ‘industry production chain is also important.