美国将遭遇一系列“微型探底”

文·本刊特邀专栏作家 泰德·普林斯（E. Ted Prince）博士

美国将遭遇一系列“微型探底”

文·本刊特邀专栏作家 泰德·普林斯（E. Ted Prince）博士

目前在美国乃至全世界讨论的话题都是美国即将进入又一轮衰退，即令人担忧的“二次探底”。但情况有可能更糟，像日本一样，美国未来20年都将无法逃脱“微型探底”(mini-dips)。

1949年以来，美国经历了11次经济衰退，算起来每隔5年半就发生一次。因此就算事态平稳，美国距离下一次经济衰退也不过4年，即2014年。但美国的情况并不正常。公共债务在GDP中的比重快速增长，这通常只在发展中国家出现。美国的这一比重已达到70%，未来两三年可能升至100%。这就是经济发生危机的临界点。

美国国会通过了金融监管方面的改革案，金融体系的风险将有所降低，大部分创新型的美国公司将走出美国。这将使美国经济领域出现创新和风险都有所下降的局面。

美国还有其他严峻的问题——利率现在超低，基本处于通货紧缩中。现在唯一的问题是这种通货紧缩是像日本那样一直持续，还是能暂时躲避风头。通常超低的利率之后会出现又一轮泡沫经济和衰退。这些都有可能在短期内发生。而且美国的政治体系也越来越面临僵局。如同日本一样，有可能“一病不起”。瘫痪的政治体系无法做出决策，经济和金融体系也必然会走下坡路。

1980年代末和1990年代初，日本出现了战后最大的经济泡沫，接着就是严重的经济衰退，至今都没有真正结束。从那时起，日本经历了持续的通货紧缩，股票和房地产的价格低于1990年的水平。日本的公共债务如今是GDP的200%。脆弱的日本政府（除了小泉当政期间）无法对任何重大的事务做出决策。对此我们所称之为的“微型探底”。这和经济衰退还有所不同。经济衰退中，GDP至少连续三个季度下降。而在“微型探底”中，GDP或至少是名义上的GDP停止增长，可能出现下滑，但降幅不大，而且不会连续两个季度下降。通常GDP会不上不下，或者在临界点小幅波动，不会有惊人的降幅。

经济衰退有一个很大的“益处”——当大部分经济行为紧缩时，每个人都有所震动，会减少浪费并试图以更加创新和高效的姿态来开展新的业务。说实话，衰退就是因祸得福。所以，关于衰退的“好消息”是每个人都会自我纠错，并推动事物的发展。

“微型探底”不像衰退那样触动人心。用美国诗人埃利奥特（T.S. Elliot）的话来说，“微型探底”不是撞击而是啜泣。“微型探底”表示下滑，但不足以让人震惊并采取新的行动。这么说来，“微型探底”并不好，既不能产生震动，又不能自我纠正。这也就是为什么日本在过去20年无所作为的原因。日本的人口老化，过度依赖社会保障制度，年轻人已见怪不怪，不足以推动他们去改变经济衰退的发生。所以，当人们跟我说起美国的二次探底时，我的回答是，也就是美国才有如此的好运气。第二次经济衰退是又一次冲击，美国政府和一筹莫展的政客应该在此时有所作为。

泰德·普林斯

泰德·普林斯博士是佩斯领导力研究院（The Perth Leader-ship Institute）的创始人和首席执行官，是领导力和财务绩效领域的专家，著有《卓越领导者的三大财务风格》（The Three Financial Styles of Very Successful Leaders）专著。他还是佛罗里达大学课座教授，上海财经大学MBA学院高顿财务金融培训中心课座教授

更有可能的是美国没有进入第二次衰退而是发生“微型探底”，这样一来，没有人会去解决严重的金融和政治问题。“微型探底”中，GDP会在一到两个季度里出现零增长，接着会勉强有1%这样的小幅攀升。“微型探底”后，将会出现一到两年的零增长或微小增长（1%到2%），但不会下降。接下来的两年里，可能会出现又一次“微型探底”。一系列“微型探底”中，GDP降到零或偶尔降到零以下，但时间不过是一到两个季度而已。然后，GDP再反弹到零。未来很多年会出现很多次“微型探底”，就像日本一样呈现出“微型探底”的经济态势。但你可能会反驳说，美国难道不是和日本一样，有着超级人物掌控的超级公司，怎么可能出现“微型探底”？

答案是，公司仍可以蓬勃发展，政府却从负债累累的经济中吸血，形成浮夸而没有效率的官僚机构。即便公众对于这样的政府和政客已很少或根本没有信心，政府仍能生存，他们从私营部门和人民身上榨取了更多的税收。在美国，对政府的信心指数仅在20%左右。我们无法期望两大政党——民主党或共和党能有所作为。跟日本一样，政府的更迭基本上没有带来什么变化。

我把某些国家称之为“过度发展的国家”（简称“ODCs”），这些国家在本国公民身上的支出超过了可负担的范围，只能向国外借款。他们指望后代能替他们偿还债务。在这些国家，债务实际上反映出政治上的僵局。不削减开支，只会从国外借款，的确比做出艰难的决策要容易得多。而私营部门要给公共部门的超支买单。事实上，私营部门的效率越高，公共部门的效率就越糟糕。这也就是为什么美国和日本以及欧洲一些国家出现了公私部门之间的巨大差距。

1960年代开始，在解决了二战出现的财政问题后，欧洲国家就变成了过度发达国家。日本则是在1980年代跨入了该行列。而美国刚变成过度发达国家。不幸的是，缺少像小泉这样的领导人。过度发达国家的未来不好说，美国也是如此。但美国和日本有一个很大的差别，美国的移民率很高，人口还在增长，对于GDP的增长来说还有一些推动力。日本则没有这个优势。另外，即便美国的通货紧缩加剧，影响也不大。我猜想人口的增长最终将在很大程度上抵消通货紧缩的后果。因此我认为，美国的“微型探底”不会像日本那样糟糕。即便美国的通货紧缩越来越厉害，也不会比日本差。当然这没什么可高兴的，不过即便不能完全躲开衰退，美国也可以规避日本衰退中最让人揪心的那部分。

The smart talk now in the US and globally is that the US is about to enter another recession – the much feared doubledip recession. However what is likely to happen is even worse – a series of mini-dips over the next 20 years that the US will not be able to exit from, just like Japan.

The US has had 11 recessions since 1949.That’s one recession every 5.5 years. So even if things were normal, the US could expect another recession by 2014, that is, in 4 years time.

But things aren’t normal in the US.Public debt as a proportion of GDP is increasing rapidly to levels normally seen only in developing countries. The US is already at the 70% level and should get to the 100% level in 2-3 years. That’s the danger point at which an economy can default.

The financial regulatory reform that has just been passed by Congress will lead to less risk-taking in the financial system and will result in the most innovative US companies moving out of the US which will lead to less innovation and risk-taking in the US financial arena.

The US has other major problems too. Interest rates are ultra-low. The US is essentially in deflation; the only issue now is whether this deflation will be permanent like Japan or whether the US can dodge the bullet for the moment. Usually ultra-low interest rates are followed by another bubble and then another recession. They are quite probable now in a short time.

And the US political system is increasingly in gridlock. Again it increasingly resembles the Japanese political system which is essentially permanently in paralysis.

Paralyzed political systems where decisions cannot be made lead to paralyzed economies and paralyzed financial systems.That’s because it’s hard to get agreement on anything, much less get agreement on making hard choices like cutting government spending. Paralyzed governments tend to have high debt and multiple financial crises.That’s where the US is heading now.

We have seen this movie before. In the late 1980s and early 1990s Japan had had its biggest post-war bubble. It was followed by a deep recession. Essentially the recession has never ended.

Japan has experienced almost continual deflation since then; prices of stocks and real estate are below where they were in 1990.Japan’s public debt is now 200% of GDP. Its weak government has never (with one brief exception under Prime Minister Koizumi)been able to take decisive action on anything significant.

Since the early 1990s Japan has undergone a series of what we call mini-dips.

A mini-dip is a different animal to a recession. In a recession, GDP declines for at least three quarters in a row. In a minidip, GDP, or least nominal GDP, does not grow and it may decline, but not by much and not for more than two quarters in a row.Nor does it rise much. It just does nothing but stay around zero, just a little above, or a little below. Nothing dramatic at all.

Recessions have one big benefit. When economic activity contracts a lot, it gives a big shock to everyone and then they do things like cutting waste and actually doing new things to become more innovative and efficient which they would never have done otherwise. Recessions are actually blessings in disguise. So the good news about recession is that it is essentially self-correcting and gets things moving again.

Mini-dips are not like recessions. They do not deliver a shock. To para-phrase the American poet T. S. Elliot, a mini-dip ends not in a bang, but a whimper. Mini-dips deliver a decline, but not one that is big enough for anyone to be shocked into doing anything new. So mini-dips are bad because they are not shocking and they are not selfcorrecting.

That’s why Japan has done nothing for the past 20 years. It’s a country with far too many old people who are living on social security who have no energy to do anything.And the younger people and businessmen are used to seeing it all before. There has been no recession big enough to motivate them to do anything different.

Japan is a permanent mini-dip society that has grown too old, comfortable and lazy to do anything about the deep social and political problems it is experiencing.

So when people talk to me about a double dip recession in the US, my answer is, if only the US could be so lucky. A second recession now would be another shock and maybe the US government and its moribund politicians would actually do something significant this time.

The far more likely scenario is that the US is not going into another recession but instead just going into a mini-dip that will motivate no-one to tackle the deep financial and politician problems in the US. The minidip will involve GDP growth at zero for one or two quarters and then it will crawl up to a growth rate like 1%.

That mini-dip will be followed by a year or two of no-growth or little growth (think 1-2%) but no decline. Then in another 2 years it will be followed by another mini-dip. A series of mini-dips where GDP goes to zero,or occasionally to below zero but just for one or two quarters. Then it bounces up to zero again. Lots of mini-dips over lots of years. A mini-dip economy, just like Japan.

More iPhones, More Government?

But, you might object, doesn’t the US,just like Japan, have superb companies with superb people inventing superb new products?How can mini-dips happen with such great companies and such great people?

The answer is that companies can still prosper while the government is sucking the life out of the economy with high debt and a bloated and ineffective bureaucracy.Governments like this can survive even when the public has little or no confidence in its politicians because they can always get more taxes out of the private sector and the people.

In the US and Japan, confidence in politicians runs at around 20% of so. And in the US we can’t expect either major party –Democrats or Republicans - to do anything about it. That’s just like Japan where a recent change in government has made absolutely no difference at all.

I have written before about a class of countries that I call Over-Developed Countries, ODCs. ODCs are developed countries that spend more on their citizens than they can afford to and borrow the difference from foreigners. They rely on future generations of their citizens having to pay back this debt.

In ODCs, the debt actually reflects political gridlock. It’s easier to make no spending cuts and borrow from foreigners rather than to make hard spending decisions.In ODCs the purpose of the private sector is to pay for the excesses of the public sector.In fact the more efficient the private sector,the worse and more inefficient is the public sector. That’s why you see the huge gap in competence between the public and the private sector in the US and Japan, and to a lesser extent in Europe.

European countries started to become ODCs in the 1960s, once they had solved the financial problems created by World War II. Japan became an ODC in the late 1980s.The US is just achieving ODC status now.Unfortunately without a leader like Japan’s Koizumi, and there aren’t many like him, the future is not good for ODCs. That includes the US.

However there is one big difference between the US and Japan. That is that the US, mainly due to a high level of immigration, still has population growth and that will put some upward pressure on GDP growth figures. Japan doesn’t have that advantage.

On the other hand if US deflation gets worse, that might not matter so much.My guess is that eventually an expanding population will help counter-act deflation in the US to a great extent.

So I think that the US mini-dips won’t be as bad as the Japan mini-dips. The deflation,even if it gets worse in the US will still not be as bad as Japan. Nothing to get excited about,but maybe the US will avoid the worst parts of the Japanese disease, even if it doesn’t avoid it completely.

“A Serial Mini-Dip Economy is the Future of the US”

Dr. E. Ted Prince

（翻译：许玫） 本文观点仅代表作者本人