NCEP气象数据在大清河流域分布式水文模拟的适用性研究

刘佳+王振海+李传哲+田济扬+穆文彬+徐征和

摘要：SWAT水文模型在国际上得到了广泛的应用和推广，并在国内的多个研究区域已经得到了验证。但作为模型输入的气象数据，其精度和空间分布对SWAT模型的模拟结果有显著影响。位于我国北方地区的大清河流域，流域面积为45 131 km2，全国国家级气象台站仅有2个站点位于流域内部，6个站点分布在流域周边，无法为分布式水文模拟提供充足可靠的气象数据支撑。采用美国国家环境预测中心（NCEP）的全球气象数据为SWAT模型提供输入，并对NCEP数据在大清河流域水文模拟中的适用性进行定量评价。结果表明，降雨数据是否准确对径流模拟的影响最为显著，NCEP数据在大清河流域的适用性较好。

关键词：NCEP气象数据；SWAT模型；分布式水文模拟；大清河流域；适用性

中图分类号：P333文献标识码：A文章编号：

1672-1683（2015）001-0001-03

Applicability of NCEP meteorological data for distributed hydrological modeling in Daqing River Basin

LIU Jia1，WANG Zhen-hai2，LI Chuan-zhe1，3，TIAN Ji-yang1，MU Wen-bin1，XU Zheng-he4

（1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin，China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research，Beijing 100038，China；2.Geological Survey of Jiangsu Province，Nanjing 210018，China；3.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science，Wuhan University，Wuhan 430072，China；4.College of Resources and Environment，University of Ji′nan，Jin′an 250002，China）

Abstract：Nowadays the SWAT model has been widely used and verified in various research fields in the world.Meteorological data are among the most important inputs of the SWAT model.The accuracy and the spatial distribution of the data have important impact on the simulation results of the SWAT model.For the Daqing River Basin，which is located in North China with an area of 45 131 km2，there are only 2 national meteorological stations located within the basin and another 6 located surrounded.Therefore，the national meteorological stations cannot provide enough information for distributed hydrological modeling.In this study，the global meteorological data from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction（NCEP） are used to provide inputs of the SWAT model，and the applicability of the NCEP data for hydrological modeling is investigated for the study basin.The results have shown that the NCEP data can be widely used in the river basins in North China，and the accuracy of the precipitation data plays an important role in the runoff modeling results.

Key words：NCEP meteorological data；SWAT model；distributed hydrological modeling；Daqing River Basin；applicability

随着信息技术的迅速发展和电子科技的不断进步，地理信息系统、遥感、全球定位系统（3S）在水科学领域中得到了日益广泛的应用；同时，社会经济的快速发展促使对水循环、水资源以及生态环境系统的分析需求不断加大，水文模型得到了迅速发展和应用[1]。在众多水文模型中，SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）模型以其强大的功能、先进的模型结构以及高效的计算，在分布式水文模型中占有重要地位。SWAT模型是建立在GIS基础上的流域尺度、连续时段、基于过程的综合分布式水文模型[2]，具有很强的物理机制。自开发以来在世界多个国家和地区得到了较为广泛的应用。……