温江区早银桂初花期预测

摘要利用温江区1970～2014年气象观测资料和成都农业气象试验站2004～2014年早银桂开花期物候观测资料，采用统计学方法，得出了温江区早银桂初花期的预报指标及判据；并利用逐步回归的方法统计分析2004～2014年1～8月各旬、月的气象因子与初花期的关系，建立了温江区早银桂初花期预测模型。结果表明，初花期基本预报指标为①23.0 ℃≤10 d滑动日平均气温﹤25.0 ℃，同时21.0 ℃≤10 d日平均最低气温≤22.0 ℃，若同10 d内累计降水量≥53.0 mm或累计雨日≥6 d或日平均相对湿度≥81%；②10 d滑动日平均气温﹤23.0 ℃，且同一10 d内日平均最低气温﹤21.0 ℃。初花期预报判据为当10 d滑动日平均气温≥25.0 ℃，或同时段内10 d日平均最低气温≥22.0 ℃时，不会初花；当满足任一基本预报指标时，则该日为预报日，预测3～12 d达到初花期，否则不会初花。初花期预测模型为Y=33.018-3.239X1+1.681X2-1.986X3，表明影响初花期的主要气象因子是1月下旬平均最低氣温，其次为2月下旬平均最高气温、5月下旬雨日。利用该模型对初花期回测，并预测2014、2015年初花期，误差范围在0～5 d，表明预测模型准确率较高，能用于初花期预测。

关键词早银桂；初花期；预报指标；预报判据；预测模型

中图分类号S162.5+5文献标识码A文章编号0517-6611（2015）31-146-04

The Forecast on the First Flowering Stage of Osmanthus fragrans‘Zaoyinin Wenjiang District

RONG Ren1，2（1. Chengdu Experimental Station of Agricultural Meteorology， Chengdu， Sichuan 611135； 2. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province， Chengdu， Sichuan 610072）

AbstractAccording to the meteorological data from 1970 to 2014 and the blossom phenological data of Osmanthus fragrans‘Zaoyin from 2004 to 2014 in Wenjiang district， using statistical method， prediction index and criterion of the first flowering stage in Wenjiang district was obtained. And using the method of stepwise regression， the relationship between flowering and average temperature， humidity， sunshine time number， cumulative precipitation and rainy days every ten days and monthly from January to August in 2004 to 2014 was analyzed. A forecasting model was established about the first flowering stage of Osmanthus fragrans‘Zaoyinin Wenjiang District. The main conclusions are as follows： forecast index of the first flowering stage： Index 1： meet the conditions， 23.0 ℃≤sliding average temperature in 10 d﹤25.0 ℃， and 21.0 ℃≤average minimum temperature in 10 d≤22.0 ℃， in the same 10 d， cumulative precipitation≥53.0 mm， or rainy days ≥6 d， or average humidity ≥81%. Index 2： sliding average temperature in 10 d﹤23.0 ℃， and in the same 10 d，average minimum temperature in 10 d﹤21.0 ℃. Prediction criterion of the first flowering stage： sliding average temperature in 10 d≥25.0 ℃， or in the same 10 d， average minimum temperature in 10 d≥22.0 ℃， then not flowering. Meet the forecast index of any initial flowering stage， take the day as the forecast day， Prediction is at flowering period after 3-12 d. Otherwise it will not bloom. Forecast model of the first flowering stage：Y=33.018-3.239X1+1.681X2-1.986X3. It indicates that main meteorological factors of affecting flowering is average minimum temperature in late January and average maximum temperature in late February， rainy days in late May are secondary. By using the model，predict the first flowering period in 2014， 2015， it has the error range from 0 to 5 d. The results show that accuracy of forecast model is higher and it can be used for prediction of early flowering period.

Key wordsOsmanthus fragrans‘Zaoyin； First flowering stage； Forecast index； Prediction criterion； Forecast model

近年来随着成都市农业产业结构调整和农业产业化的大力推进，温江已成为我国西部最大的花木研发、生产、交易中心，花木产业成为温江区的主导产业。而桂花是温江主要经济花木之一。近年随着“生态温江、休闲温江、健康温江”品牌效应不断增强，温江绿道骑游的兴起、农家乐的兴旺，温江区现有的以桂花为主的花卉成为人们休闲娱乐的好景观。……