典型天气下三种结构温室气温特征及预报模型研究

孟翠丽 杨文刚 黄永学 王涵 陈鑫 陆鹏程

摘要：选用武汉农业气象试验站的单体薄膜大棚、连栋薄膜大棚、PVC温室为研究对象，分别研究了晴天、多云、阴天室内外气温的日变化特征，并构建了不同覆盖方式下温室内气温的预报模型。结果表明，PVC温室保温性能最好;单体薄膜大棚内气温升降速度快，升降幅度大。模型值与实测值的相对误差在2.2%～8.7%之间，均方根介于0.7～1.7 ℃。模型拟合精度较高，可为武汉市不同结构设施蔬菜的温室内温度调控提供科学依据。关键词：温室;气温;预测;武汉

中图分类号：S162.4        文献标识码：A        文章编号：0439-8114（2015）23-6033-05

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2015.23.061

Research on the Temperature Characteristics and Prediction Model for Different Structure Greenhouse in Typical Weather in Wuhan

MENG Cui-li， YANG Wen-gang， HUANG Yong-xue， WANG Han， LU Peng-cheng

（Wuhan National Agricultural Meteorology Station， Wuhan 430040， China）

Abstract： One-span plastic greenhouse，multi-span plastic greenhouse and PVC greenhouse were selected to study  the diurnal characteristics of interior and outdoor temperature in sunny， cloudy and dusky day at Wuhan national agro-meteorological stations， and air temperature prediction model for each kind of greenhouse was developed using stepwise regression method. The results indicated that the thermal insulation property of PVC greenhouse was the best. Variety range of air temperature inside one-span plastic greenhouse was higher with quicker ascend and descend of the speed. The corresponding relative error were all between 2.2% to 8.7%，and the root mean square error（RMSE） were all between 0.7 to 1.7 ℃. The models was quite precisely，which could provide scientific basis for control and predication of air temperature inside the greenhouse of facility vegetables in Wuhan city.

Key words：greenhouse;air temperature;prediction;Wuhan city

设施蔬菜上市早、品质好、经济效益大，已经成为农民增收的重要途径。武汉市东西湖区位于武汉近郊，是武汉市民“菜篮子”所在地，近年来，武汉市设施蔬菜已成为种植业的主导产业。温室内温度直接影响着作物生长发育的全过程，温度维持在一定范围内，作物生长良好，温度低于或高于某一阀值时，作物将停止生长甚至死亡。研究不同结构温室气温的变化特征及预报方法，可为不同结构的设施蔬菜生产环境调控提供科学依据，也可提升气象为农服务的水平，为农业现代化生产保驾护航。

国内外学者在温室小气候方面已有一定的研究[1-4]，符国槐等[5]基于逐步回归方法构建了草莓的大棚气温预测模型;马承伟等[6]建立了温室多层覆盖传热的理论模型;余朝刚等[7]基于神经网络方法，构建了温室室内温度预报模型;金志凤等[8]以杨梅为对象构建了大棚内的最高、最低气温BP神经网络预测模型;陈丹等[9，10]研究了夏季和冬季单栋、三连栋、六连栋3种塑料大棚内外小气候特征。……