基于熵理论的城市配水系统风险评价模型研究

张子玮

【摘要】针对城市配水系统面临威胁发生概率具有不确定性而危害后果难以定量化等问题，将物理学上最能有效解决系统不确定性和定量化问题的熵函数引入到配水系统风险评价研究中，提出了一种新的城市配水系统风险熵评价模型。首先，通过对配水系统供水风险与面临威胁发生概率、严重程度以及系统自身脆弱性三者之间的关系分析，得到了配水系统风险的定性表达式；然后，有效利用熵作为系统整体不确定性度量的特点，将熵理论与配水系统风险相结合，推导得到了城市配水系统风险熵评价新模型。最后，以华北某区配水系统在面临地震灾害时的供水风险熵计算为例，实例研究表明，其计算结果可直接确定引起供水风险的主要原因及其贡献率，研究成果可作为配水系统安全设计和风险管理的决策依据。

【关键词】熵理论；城市配水系统；风险熵；评价模型

【中图分类号】TU991.33

【文献标识码】A

【Abstract】According to the uncertainty of the water supply system when it damaged by threats， the entropy function which was the indicators of uncertainty and quantitative in physics was used to analyze and assessment the risk of water supply system， and a new risk entropy assessment model for water supply system was proposed. Firstly， through the analysis of the relationship among the water risk， threats and vulnerability of the water supply system， the qualitative expression for the risk of water supply system was obtained. Secondly， based on the characteristics of the entropy was a measure of the uncertainty of the overall system， the entropy and risk assessment of water supply system was combined effectively， and the risk entropy assessment model for water supply system was proposed. At last， the earthquake disaster was taken as an example， and the risk entropy of the water supply system in the north district was computed. Through the case studies， the assessment results can be identified the main cause of water risk directly， which could be provide the basis for the decision-making and risk management of water supply system.

【Key words】Entropy theory；Water supply system；Risk entropy；Assessment model

1. 前言

配水系统作为城市供水安全的关键设施，其正常运行对于保障人民生活及经济发展有着重要的地位和作用，故被称为“城市生命线工程”。但是，配水系统作为一套复杂的大型工程体系，其自身结构复杂、所处外部环境开放，极易受到自然灾害、人为破坏等威胁的影响而导致供水中断，另一方面，许多老城区配水管网由于埋设时间长、材质不好等原因而导致管网老化漏水、爆管，使得城市的供水安全面临很大风险。……