黑龙江省水稻产量风险分布及区划

韩语轩 王莉雯等

摘要[目的]分析黑龙江省水稻产量风险的空间分布规律，并进行风险区划。[方法]对黑龙江省历年水稻单产相对气象产量序列进行正态分布判别和偏态分布正态化处理，选取水稻平均减产率、减产率变异系数和减产率大于10%的风险概率作为评价指标，分析黑龙江省水稻产量风险的空间分布规律，并采用 Kmeans平均聚类算法进行黑龙江省水稻产量的灾害风险区划。[结果]按照水稻产量的灾害风险区划，将黑龙江省划分为低、中、高3类风险区。黑龙江省水稻单产减产风险区呈整体连片、局部分散的特点。高风险区位于黑龙江省东北部和西南部地区，北部及东部地区为中风险区，而黑龙江省中部和南部地区风险最低，属于低风险区。[结论]合理调整种植结构，加强水稻生产管理和完善灌溉设施是规避黑龙江水稻产量风险的主要措施。

关键词黑龙江省；水稻；风险评价指标；风险区划

中图分类号S166文献标识码A文章编号0517-6611（2016）04-001-03

Risk Distribution and Regionalization of Rice Yield in Heilongjiang Province

HAN Yuxuan，WANG Liwen（School of Urban and Environment，Liaoning Normal University，Dalian，Liaoning 116000）

Abstract[Objective] To analyze spatial distribution law of rice yield risk in Heilongjiang Province and conduct risk zoning.[Method] Applying the average rice cut rate，the variation coefficient of cut rate and risk probability of cut rate at 10% or higher as the evaluation indicators，relative meteorological yield array of rice yield per unit in Heilongjiang Province in calendar years was processed by performing the discrimination of normal distribution and the normalization of skewness distribution，the spatial risk distribution of rice yield was analyzed.By using KMeans，the disaster risk regionalization of rice yield in Heilongjiang Province was conducted.[Result] This article divided Heilongjiang Province into low，medium and high three type areas of risk.The result indicated that risk areas of rice yield reduction are contiguous on the whole and scattered in a small part.Southwest and northeast of Heilongjiang Province were high risk area，well northern and eastern parts were medium one and central and southern parts belonged to low risk area.[Conclusion] The main measure to reduce the risk on rice output in Heilongjiang Province is to adjust the planting structure properly，to improve the rice management and to perfect the irrigation facilities.

Key wordsHeilongjiang Province； Rice； Risk evaluation indicators； Risk regionalization

近年來，全球各类极端天气事件频繁发生，由气候异常变化引起的农业损失事件时有发生。据统计，1979～2008年我国主要作物的受灾比例呈逐年增加的趋势[1]。我国每年因气象灾害造成的农作物受灾面积达5 000万hm2，因灾导致的单品种粮食产量波动可达20%左右，严重时可达30%以上[2]。黑龙江省作为我国重要的粮食生产基地，在水稻种植面积、生产总量以及商品量方面均居于我国首位[3]，其水稻产量的丰歉与我国粮食安全和社会稳定密切相关。……