可再生能源科技发展方向及对我国能源格局影响

彭北桦

摘 要：CO2排放量与化石能源消费高度相关，我国以煤为主的能源结构导致生态环境和应对气候变化面临巨大挑战。推动能源生产和消费革命是“十三五”以及今后较长时期我国能源发展的中心任务，随着可再生能源科学技术研发与产业化进程不断加快，将极大改变我国现有能源格局。虽然我国在可再生能源科技和产業发展方面取得了显著成绩，但创新性、基础性研究薄弱问题仍然突出。低成本、稳定性是可再生能源技术发展的总体方向，随着高效环保太阳能发电技术、先进风力发电技术等可再生能源技术进步，可再生能源的竞争力将持续提升，未来在整体能源体系中的作用将大幅增强，推动形成清洁低碳的能源格局。

关键词：可再生能源；科技发展方向；我国能源格局

中图分类号： TK01 文献标志码：A

文章编号：1672-1098（2017）05-0082-05

Abstract：CO2 emission is highly correlated to the consumption of fossil fuels， and Chinas coal-dominated energy structure has caused great challenges to ecological environment and climate change. Therefore， promoting energy production and consumption revolution is the central task of the energy development in China during the period of “the 13th Five-year Plan” and for the long time thereafter， which will greatly change the existing energy structure in our country with the research & development and the accelerating industrialization of renewable energy science and technology. Although China has made remarkable achievements in the related areas， the limitations in innovation and basic research are still serious. Low cost and stability are the overall direction of renewable energy technology development. The renewable energy technology progresses， such as solar power technology with high efficiency and environmental protection and advanced wind power generation technology， would continue to improve the competitiveness of the renewable energy. And in the whole future energy system， the renewable energy technology will play a much greater role and will greatly promote to form the clean and low-carbon energy structure.

Key words：renewable energy； the direction of science and technology development； Chinas energy structure

生态环境和气候变化问题深刻影响着人类经济社会的可持续发展，是国际社会共同面临的重大挑战。我国CO2排放量与化石能源消费高度相关（见表1），2015年我国能源消费总量为45亿吨标准煤，是世界最大的能源消费国。由于煤炭占我国能源消费总量的64%，我国当年103亿吨的CO2排放量占全球总排放量的29%[1]。当前不合理的能源利用方式和能源消费结构将会使环境问题更加突出，严重影响我国的经济可持续发展[2-4]。据《BP能源展望2030》预测，未来煤炭所占比重下降，天然气比重略有增加，可再生能源开始大规模进入市场，到2050年，世界将形成以清洁能源为主的世界能源格局。……