中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资结构图景及其演进动力

张纯威 戴本忠 张启

[摘 要]基于2003—2016年面板数据进行静态图景描述发现，中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI倾向于投向大市场国、低成本国和近邻国。计量分析显示，东道国实际GDP、人均国民收入及其与中国的距离是这种结构形成的决定性因素，中国实际GDP、对东道国工程承包、国际贸易及双边投资保护协定也具有正向作用。据此判断，随着中国及东道国经济增长、中国对外工程承包和对外贸易扩大及“一带一路”基础设施互联互通，中国对沿线国家OFDI规模必将持续扩大，并更多地流向经济增长快、低成本优势突出国和远距离国。因此，在发展策略方面，对外投资企业应与其他对外经济主体密切协作，努力推动东道国经济增长。政府应统一规划、整体布局、协调推进各种对外经济活动，维持、扩大和提升与各国的友好合作关系，以创造一个良好的国际环境。

[关键词]“一带一路”；对外直接投资；投资动机；投资环境

[中图分类号]F125.5

[文献标识码]A

[文章编号]2095-3283（2018）02-0077-07

Abstract： By the static view describing based on the data during 2003 to 2016， it is found that China's OFDI in countries along the Belt and Road is mainly invested in the big market， low-cost producers and near abroad. According to the econometric analysis， the real GDP， per capita income of the host countries and the distance from China are the decisive factors for the structure， while the real GDP， overseas project contracting and trade of China and bilateral investment protection agreement exerting promoting effect. It can be inferred that China's OFDI to the Belt and Road will expand continuously and greater share will be invested to the countries with faster economic growth， more outstanding low-cost advantage or long distance along with economic growth and China's overseas project contracting and trade expansion and the developing of infrastructure connectivity in the area. So， as a development strategies， each oversea investment enterprise should work closely with other foreign economic entities and try to contribute to the host country economy， and government should pay attention to the unified planning， overall layout and coordinated progress for all kinds of external economic activities， maintain， expand and enhance the relationship of friendly cooperation to create a good international environment.

Keywords： the Belt and the Road； OFDI； Investment Motivation； Investment Environments

一、引言

隨着越来越多国家的参与，“一带一路”已经成为由我国倡导的面向全球、开放的合作机制与平台，其所涉范围已远超最初的地理界定。但为了便于比较和获取统计数据，不与全球范围相重合，本文仍沿用最初的界定，即包含亚、欧、非66个国家和地区。

自从2013年9月习近平主席提出倡议以来，中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的OFDI迅速扭转相对落后状态①，其流量占中国对全球OFDI比重由2013年的26.53%提高到2015年的34.71%。但从2016年6月起却出现了同比下降，全年下降2.12%，2017年1-11月同比再降7.3%。……