效用估计对公众二孩生育管理的促进研究

罗维，吕叻加，刘欣，刘朋

收稿日期：2017-12-26

基金项目：陕西省社科界2016年度重大理论与现实问题研究项目“生育政策调整中的公众心理阻碍因素研究”（2016Z067）

作者简介：罗 维（1984-），女，陕西武功人，工程师，国家注册心理师，主要从事大学生心理健康教育，临床心理咨询研究.

摘 要：调查我国全面两孩政策落实后，生育效用估计对于社会公众生育意愿的积极促进作用。文中通过设计“二孩生育效用问卷”对社会公众的生育意愿及对生育效用进行调查，并选取高生育意愿群体的调查数据通过主成分因子分析法、方差分析、回归分析等进行统计分析。明确表示愿意生育二孩的公众占比33.15%；主成分分析发现二孩生育的估计主要包括经济、保险、享乐、繁衍、社会效用；影响公众生育意愿的回归因素为繁衍效用、理想孩子的数量、享乐效用、性别、已生育情况、经济效用。全面二孩政策刺激了公众生育意愿，公众注重享乐效用和保险效用；二孩生育存在明显的性别偏好，男性生育意愿高；不同生活环境公众生育目的不同，社会责任感可以增强生育意愿。在此基础上从管理学和社会学的角度提出有效提高公众二孩生育的意见和建议。

关键词：生育效用；社会公众；全面两孩政策；生育意愿

中图分类号：C 924.21 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2018）04-0486-05The Fertility Management on the Effect of Utility Estimating for

Second Child under Universal twochild PolicyLUO Wei1，LV Lejia1，LIU Xin2，LIU Peng1

（1.Department of Student Affairs，Xian University of Science and Technology，710054，China；

2.Department of Student Affairs，Northwestern Polytechnical University，710072，China）Abstract：To investigate the positive effect of estimation of reproductive function on the fertility desire of the public after the implementation of the twochild policy in China.This paper designed the “twochild birth questionnaire” to investigate the publics desire for fertility and its effects on fertility，and selected the survey data of high fertility groups to conduct statistical analysis through principal component analysis，variance analysis，and regression analysis.The proportion of the public who clearly expressed their willingness to give birth to two children was 33.15%.The principal component analysis found that the estimates of second childbirth mainly included economy，insurance，hedonism，reproduction，and social utility；the regression factors affecting the publics desire for fertility were reproductive effects，the number of ideal children，hedonic utility，gender，birth status，and economic utility.The twochild policy has stimulated the publics desire for fertility，the public has focused on hedonic utility and insurance effectiveness；The public have obvious preference of gender in the second child birth，and males have higher reproductive desire；The purposes of fertility intention of the public are different，and social responsibility can enhance fertility desire.According to the data collected，this paper offered some effective suggestions about public intention on the second childbirth.

Key words：fertility utility；the public；twochild policy；fertility intention

1 研究背景

生育行為受到法律、政策、宗规族训、民间惯习等多方面因素的影响，但生育政策对生育行为有直接抑制或直接鼓励的作用。纵观历史，具有中国特色的独生子女政策是历史条件下不断酝酿乃至形成的产物，实施了30多年，有效地控制了中国人口，促进了社会经济的快速发展，但使得总和生育率降低，人口红利消失，中国提早进入了人口老龄化时代[1]。……