Pilotless planes could save airlines billions.But would anyone fly?

By Calvin Harris

采用无人驾驶的客机每年可以为航空公司节省数十亿的开支，同时机票的价格也会大大降低，但大多数乘客还是选择信任飞行员。

Taking pilots out of the cockpit could save airlines billions.But would anyone buy a ticket?

The aviation industry could save$35 billion a year by moving to pilotless planes,according to a new report from UBS.Just one problem:The same report warns that only 17%of travelers are willing to fly without a pilot.

UBS said that the technology required to operate remote-controlled planes could appear by 2025.Further advances beyond 2030 might result in automated business jets and helicopters,and finally commercial aircraft without pilots.

The technologies in development today will enable the aircraft to assist and back up the pilot in all the flight phases，removing the pilot from manual control and systems operations in all types of situations,the report said.

Commercial flights already land with the assistance of onboard computers,and pilots manually fly the aircraft for only a few minutes on average.

However,contrary to popular belief,airliners do not fly themselves,even when they’re on autopilot.Pilots are continually mon-itoring and adjusting aircraft navigation and systems,communicating with air traffic control and preparing for the next phase of the flight.

The UBS analysts said the transition to pilotless planes is likely to happen over many years.Cargo planes would likely be first to incorporate the new technology，with commercial flights being the last to go pilotless.The number of pilots needed for each flight could be reduced along the way.

The shift has the potential to save the aviation industry huge amounts of money.Airlines typically employ 10 pilots per aircraft,and reducing their number would result in less spending on training,salaries and other staffing costs.It could also help alleviate an expected pilot shortage over the coming decades.

An annual forecast released by Boeing last month said passenger and cargo airlines around the world are expected to buy 41,000 new airliners between 2017 and 2036.That means they will need to find and train 637,000 new pilots to fly them.

Airlines in the Middle East and China,where air traffic is growing fast,are offering huge paychecks to attract more pilots and salaries in the U.S.are rising too.

A move to pilotless planes would boost industry profitability,UBS said.Alternatively,if the cost savings were entirely passed to consumers,tickets could cost much less (11%cheaper in the U.S.).That would be about$40 a ticket,according to the$369 round trip average in the first half of 2016,which included$23 in fees.

Still,there is likely to be major resistance to taking pilots out of the cockpit.

A survey of 8,000 people commissioned by UBS found that 54%of respondents were unlikely to take a pilotless flight.Just 17%of respondents,who were from the U.S.,U.K.,France,Germany and Australia,said they would buy the ticket.

采用无人驾驶的客机可以为航空公司节省数十亿的开支,但会有人选择乘坐这样的飞机吗?

瑞士联合银行(UBS)的一项报告称，飞机制造业转向生产无人驾驶客机每年可以减少350亿美元的支出。但是这项报告也指出，只有17%的旅客愿意乘坐无人驾驶的客机。

UBS称这种可远程控制飞机的技术将会在2025年出现。到2030年将会进一步有先进的技术出现在自动化商用飞机和直升机上。而最终商用客机也会踏入无飞行员时代。

报告中说道：目前发展的技术将会使飞机在每一个飞行阶段协助并支持飞行员的工作，飞行员无需在任何情况下进行手动控制或系统操作。

目前商业航班已经装备了辅助设备机载计算机，需要飞行员手动控制的时间平均下来只有几分钟。

然而，与普遍观点恰恰相反的是，飞机并不是完全自主飞行，即便是在自动驾驶状态下。飞行员会持续监视并调整飞机航行和系统，同时还要与空管保持联络以准备下一飞行阶段。

UBS的分析指出，飞机由有人驾驶转向无人驾驶要经历很多年。货运飞机有可能会首先尝试新技术，而商用客机则会是最后一个。而在这期间，每架飞机所需飞行员的数量会逐渐减少。

这一转变为飞机制造业节省大量的支出还有很大的潜力。航空公司一般会为每架飞机配备10名飞行员，如果减少这一数量将意味着更少的训练经费，工资以及其他的人工费用。同时对于未来几十年内可能出现的飞行员短缺现象具有缓和作用。

波音公司在上个月发布的年度预测中提到：全球客运和货运航空公司将会在2017年至2036年间购入41,000架新飞机，这就意味着他们需要训练出637,000名飞行员来驾驶这些飞机。

在航空运输高速发展的中东地区以及中国，航空公司提出高额薪水来吸引更多的飞行员。在美国，飞行员的工资也提高了。

UBS称，飞机转型为无人驾驶将会推动工业收益。如果这笔开支全部节省在消费者一方，那么机票价格也会大大降低(北美可降低11%)。这样一来，根据2016年上半年的平均往返机票价格369美元，机票价格大约会降价40美元。

但仍然有大部分人反对无人驾驶飞机。

一项由UBS委办的针对8,000人的调查显示，54%的调查对象不愿意乘坐无人驾驶的飞机。只有17%的人的回答是愿意。这部分人来自美国，英国，法国，德国以及澳大利亚。