Climate action can limit Asia

张明波

海詞积累

1. simulation n. 模拟

2. extent n. 程度;范围

3. severe adj. 十分严重的

4. driver n. 驱动因素

5. notable adj. 著名的;显著的

6. variation n. 变种;变更;变化

7. adverse adj. 不利的;有害的

预读思考

What are the functions of the prefixes un-，in-， and the suffixes -th， -ive？

A new study led by MIT researchers takes a creative approach to modeling the effects of both climate change and economic growth on Asia.

To examine the risk of water shortages on the continent， the researchers conducted detailed simulations of many reasonable economic and climate pathways for Asia in the future， evaluating the relative effects of both pathways on water supply and demand. By studying cases in which economic change or growth continues but the climate remains unchanged—and in this way—the scholars could better identify the extent to which these factors cause water shortages.

The MIT-based team found that with no limitations in economic growth and climate change， an additional 200 million people across Asia would face severe water shortages by 2050. However， fighting climate change along the lines of the 2015 Paris Agreement would reduce by around 60 million the number of people facing severe water problems.

But even with worldwide efforts to limit climate change， there is a 50 percent chance that around 100 million people in southern and eastern Asia will experience a 50 percent increase in “water stress”.

“We do find that the lessening strategy can reduce the serious risk of water stress in Asia，” say Adam Schlosser and Xiang Gao. “But it doesn't solve it all.”

The research team also uses models that track urban and industrial activities and their specific water-demand consequences across many smaller areas in Asia. Irrigation tends to be a major driver of water consumption， leading to limited access to water for other uses.

Overall， the researchers conclude， through the mid-21st century， economic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the whole region， but climate change can have both positive and negative effects on water stress. The study turns up a notable amount of regional variation in the effects of climate change within Asia. Climate change by itself is likely to have a more adverse impact on water access in China than in India， for instance， where a warming climate could produce more rain.

Language Study

1. What is “the lessening strategy” in paragraph 5？

A.The study by MIT researchers.

B.The 2015 Paris Agreement.

C.The lines of limitations on water.

D.The cases of fighting climate change.

2. What can be concluded from the study led by MIT researchers？

A.Economic growth has a greater effect than climate change.

B.Economic growth has a positive influence on water stress.

C.Climate change results in an increase in water stress alone.

D.Climate change influences China and India differently.

文本探究

探究視角1：语篇分析

随着全球人口的迅速增加和人均收入水平的提高，全球淡水资源紧缺的局面正在逐渐显现。2050 年全球淡水需求量将增加两倍，如果不采取节水措施，淡水供应将有极大压力。气候委员会的一份气候报告称，经济发展导致全球变暖，加剧了亚洲在水资源、洪水灾害、食品安全、医疗健康、产业发展及生态系统等多方面危机。亚洲面临的水危机正不断加剧。20世纪初，国际上就有19 世纪争煤、20世纪争石油、21世纪争水的说法。 第47届联合国大会更是将每年的3月22日定为“世界水日”，号召世界各国对全球普遍存在的淡水资源紧缺问题引起高度警觉。预计到2025年，全世界将有近1/3（23亿）的人口缺水，40多个国家和地区受影响。

本文的篇章结构如下：

探究视角2：语言学习

I. 文本填空

1. By studying cases ______________which economic change or growth continues but the climate remains unchanged—and in this way—the scholars could better identify the extent______________which these factors cause water shortages.

2. However， ______________ （fight） climate change along the lines of the 2015 Paris Agreement would reduce by around 60 million the number of people ______________（face） severe water problems.

3. Irrigation tends to be a major driver of water consumption， ______________（lead） to limited access to water for other uses.

4. Overall， the researchers conclude， through the mid-21st century， economic growth______________（contribute） to an increase in water stress across the whole region.

5. The study ______________（发现） a notable amount of regional variation in the effects of climate change within Asia.

熟词构新

写作推荐

We do find that the lessening strategy can reduce the serious risk of water stress in Asia. 我们的确发现，缓解策略能降低亚洲水压力的严重风险。

主句中的do表示强调。在英语句子中，我们经常用do， does， did来对谓语动词进行强调。用于表示强调的do可以有时态的变化，但其后的动词要用原形。

【仿写】他的确来过，但很快就回去了。

________________________________________

探究视角3：文化拓展

每年的3月22日是世界水日（WorId    Water    Day）。1993年1月18日，第四十七届联合国大会做出决议，根据联合国环境与发展会议通过的《21世纪议程》第十八章所提出的建议，确定每年的3月22日为“世界水日”。其旨在推动对水资源进行综合性统筹规划和管理，加强水资源保护，解决日益严峻的淡水短缺问题，开展广泛的宣传以提高公众对开发和保护水资源的认识。

在中国，每年的3月22日至28日为“中国水周”（1994年以前为7月1日至7日）。1991年起，我国还将每年5月的第二周作为城市节约用水宣传周。“中国水周”的设立是为了进一步提高全社会关心水、爱惜水、保护水和水忧患的意识，促进水资源的开发、利用、保护和管理。