基于云模型的深基坑施工风险等级评价

杨昭

摘要：云模型是一种可以实现定性与定量之间相互转化的模型，由于深基坑工程的风险多表现出复杂性和模糊性，导致一般的评价模型很难对其合理准确的评价，云模型是能把定量数值与定性指标互相转化的模型，我们选取有可能影响深基坑工程正常进行的几个主要风险评价因子，建立层级递进的矩阵求得风险因子权重。依据云模型的计算规则，再结合各评价因子的权重，得到综合评价值，依据综合评价值确定深基坑工程的风险等级。在应用实例中，将云模型得出的评价结果与模糊综合评价的结果、施工风险评估报告相对比，得出的结果一致，说明我们建立的模型科学合理，从中我们可以体会到云模型可以把定性和定量数值相互转化这个独特的优点，也给我们一定的启示，使用云模型可将类似的情况进行合理准确的评价。

Abstract： The cloud model is a model that can realize the conversion between qualitative and quantitative. Because the risk of deep foundation pit engineering often shows complexity and ambiguity， it is difficult for the general evaluation model to evaluate it reasonably and accurately. The cloud model is a model that can convert quantitative values and qualitative indicators to each other. We select several major risk assessment factors that may affect the normal progress of deep foundation pit engineering， and establish a progressive matrix to obtain the weight of risk factors. According to the calculation rules of the cloud model and the weight of each evaluation factor， a comprehensive evaluation value is obtained， and the risk level of the deep foundation pit project is determined according to the comprehensive evaluation value. In the application example， the evaluation results obtained by the cloud model are compared with the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the construction risk assessment report and the results obtained are consistent， indicating that the model we have established is scientific and reasonable， from which we can realize that the cloud model has unique advantage of the mutual conversion of qualitative and quantitative values also gives us some inspiration. The cloud model can be used to reasonably and accurately evaluate similar situations.

关键词：云模型;深基坑工程;综合评价值

Key words： cloud model;deep foundation pit engineering;comprehensive evaluation value

中图分类号：TU473.2                                   文献标识码：A                                  文章編号：1006-4311（2020）17-0057-03

0  引言

深基坑工程施工中面临的风险往往十分复杂，多表现出非线性。虽然专家学者也创造了一些例如模糊评价法等方法来对其进行评价，虽然也取得了一些成果，但是由于其模糊性和随机性等特点，以至于很难创造出一种通用的判别方法来对其准确评价[1]。国内外尚无对深基坑施工风险评价的具体模型与体系，许多问题还处于初级研究阶段[2-5]。

1995年，李德毅院士提出了云模型理论，云模型是一种可以把定性语言和定量数值间相互转换的模型，理论自提出至今，已经成功运用到数据挖掘、决策分析等许多领域。……