基于随机森林的健康谣言分享意愿研究

位志广 宋小康 朱庆华 沈超 张玥

摘 要：[目的/意义]结合网民个人要素特征和健康谣言信息特征研究社交媒体环境下健康谣言分享传播的影响因素，发现特征对分享意愿的作用模式。[方法/过程]针对数据属性与分布特点选择随机森林分类算法进行样本分析，在对模型深度优化调参之后，结合特征重要度和决策树结构特点进行讨论。[结果/结论]根据指标重要度和决策树分析结果，发现网民对健康谣言的感知性特征与其分享意愿间有更强的相关性，4种感知性特征对于分享意愿有不同的作用路径。采用机器学习分类算法对健康谣言分享意愿进行建模与分析，为阻断健康谣言的传播提供干预建议，也为相关的研究方法拓展做出尝试。

关键词：健康谣言;分享意愿;分类算法;随机森林

DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2020.05.010

〔中图分类号〕G252.0 〔文献标识码〕A 〔文章编号〕1008-0821（2020）05-0078-10

Research on Health Rumor Sharing Intention Based on

Random Forest Classification Algorithm

Wei Zhiguang1 Song Xiaokang2* Zhu Qinghua1，2 Shen Chao3 Zhang Yue1

（1.School of Information Management，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210023，China;

2.School of Engineering Management，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210093China;

3.School of Management，Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications，Nanjing 210003，China）

Abstract：[Purpose/Significance]We combined the personal characteristics of users and the characteristics of health rumors to study the influencing factors of health rumors sharing in social media environment，aiming to find out the modes of these characteristics on the intention to share.[Method/Process]According to the data attributes and distribution characteristics we selected Random Forest Algorithm to train and test the samples.After deep optimization and parameter adjustment of the model，We combined the importance of features and the structure of decision tree to discuss more.[Result/Conclusion]The results of analysis showed a stronger correlation between the perceived characteristics of health rumors of users and their intention to share，based on which we found the four perceived characteristics having different function routes to sharing intention.Our work provided intervention suggestions for blocking the spread of health rumors and made new attempts to expand research methods in related fields.

Key words：health rumors;sharing intention;classification algorithm;random forest

隨着互联网技术的日益成熟以及社交媒体的快速发展，越来越多的网民得以通过网络获取健康信息。互联网的便利性与共享性使得网民可获得大量关于运动、饮食、医学等相关的健康信息资源，同时社交媒体低成本低门槛的发布与分享机制也使得用户可以自主生成并分享健康信息，进而通过社交平台引发更多的关注与分享[1]。网络的开放性与监管不力导致了在社交媒体中广泛传播的健康信息并不总是权威的健康知识，还包含大量的健康谣言。健康谣言的广泛传播将引发各种不利后果，如认知混乱，焦虑盲从等[2]。……