基于电力敏感客户预测模型的营商环境优化提升研究

韦雅 孙卉 田珂 马波 张利鹏

摘要：

近年来，党中央、国务院持续推进“放管服”改革，加快政府职能深刻转变，通过优化营商发展环境来激发市场活力。研究的目的是建立相关的预测模型，研究影响对投诉事件发生概率有显著影响的重要因素。基于某地区SG186营销系统、95598业务支持系统客户信息数据，充分挖掘数据内在联系，运用数据预先清洗机制进行影响因素初步筛选，运用改进的决策树学习算法来建立模型，并对模型效果进行充分验证，有效识别电力敏感客户。同时，针对特定投诉敏感客户，提出适应电力企业发展的精准营销策略，优化提升电力营商环境水平。

关键词：

优化提升; 改进决策树算法; 电力敏感客户; 营商环境; 预测模型

中图分类号： TP 274

文献标志码： A

Research on Business Environment Improvement Based on

Power Sensitive Customer Prediction Model

WEI Ya1， SUN Hui2， TIAN Ke2， MA Bo3， ZHANG Lipeng4

（1. Customer Service Center， Henan Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid， Zhengzhou， Henan 450006， China;

2. State Grid Company Henan Electric Power Co. Ltd.， Zhengzhou， Henan 450016， China;

3. Beijing National Network Communications Accenture Information Technology Co. Ltd.， Beijing 100032， China）

Abstract：

In recent years， the CPC Central Committee and the State Council have continuously pushed forward the reform of "release and control uniforms"， accelerated the profound transformation of government functions， and stimulated market vitality by optimizing the business development environment. The purpose of this study is to establish relevant prediction models and study the important factors that have significant impacts on the probability of complaint incidents. Based on the customer information data of SG186 marketing system and 95598 business support system in a certain area， the internal relationship of data is fully excavated， influencing factors are preliminarily screened by using data precleaning mechanism， a model is established by using improved decision tree learning algorithm， and the effect of the model is fully verified to effectively identify power sensitive customers. At the same time， aiming at specific complaintsensitive customers， this paper puts forward precise marketing strategies to adapt to the development of electric power enterprises， and optimizes and improves the environmental level of electric power business.

Key words：

optimizing promotion; improving decision tree algorithm; power sensitive customers; business environment; prediction model

0引言

電力改革深入推进，要求电力公司持续提升营商环境水平[13]。新时代，电力客户需求向多样化发展，向电力服务提出更高标准和要求[4]。这就导致电力行业供需双方之间的矛盾，加上电力行业的客户具有分散的特点，涉及的面广，层次较多，需求呈现差异化，更加剧了两者之间的供需矛盾[5]。首先，电力产品所具有的特殊的社会服务职能决定了它是人们生活的必需品;其次，客户的维权意识加强，通过多种渠道投诉来表达他们对供电公司的不满情绪和态度，如电话、电子邮件、传真、信函、上访等，直接影响电力公司社会形象。最后，电改促进售电市场全面开放，电力市场竞争更加激烈，频繁的投诉会降低客户对供电公司的满意度，造成客户流失现象[68]。……