基于闪电定位数据的雷电灾害风险及防御对策研究

邹德培 潘江萍 杨玲

摘要：基于湖南省气象部门2016—2020年雷电定位资料，运用ArcGIS软件和数理统计等方法对邵阳地区地闪频次、强度时空分布特征及雷电灾害特征进行了分析。结果表明，邵阳地区正地闪5年平均占总地闪的92.04%左右，负闪比例高于北方省市;邵阳地区50%以上的负地闪强度集中在20～40kA范围;每年7、8月份的邵阳地区闪电频次最多，一天当中午后和凌晨电流强度最大。雷电灾害致灾因子是雷电本身，孕灾环境是地形、地貌及目标物周边物体等。本文通过分析邵阳地区雷电活动及灾害特征，提高雷电灾害风险评估精准度，即优化其中一个影响因子"N" _"g" ，给出防御对策，为雷电防护设计和雷击风险评估等工作提供依据，对降低雷电灾害造成的损失及事故、雷电灾害预警等具有重要意义。

关键词：风险评估 地闪密度 地闪强度 雷电资料

Study on Lightning Disaster Risk and Defense Countermeasures Based on Lightning Location Data

ZOU Depei1  PAN Jiangping1  YANG Ling2

（1.Shaoyang Meteorological Bureau， Shaoyang， HuNan Province， 422000 China; 2.Meteorological Bureau of Chengbu Miao Autonomous County， Chengbu， Hunan Province， 422500 China）

Abstract： Based on the lightning location data of Hunan meteorological department from 2016 to 2020， the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of lightning frequency， intensity and lightning disaster characteristics in Shaoyang area are analyzed by using ArcGIS software and mathematical statistics. The results show that the average positive lightning in Shaoyang area accounts for about 92.04% of the total lightning in five years， and the proportion of negative lightning is higher than that in northern provinces and cities; More than 50% of the negative ground lightning intensity in Shaoyang area is concentrated in the range of 20 ～ 40ka; The lightning frequency in Shaoyang is the most in July and August every year， and the current intensity is the highest after noon and early morning. The disaster causing factor of lightning disaster is lightning itself， and the disaster pregnant environment is terrain， landform and objects around the target. In this article， through analyzing the characteristic of the Shaoyang area lightning activity and disasters， it improves the accuracy of lightning disaster risk assessment， that is， optimizing one of the influencing factors and giving defense countermeasures， so as to provide basis for lightning protection design and lightning risk assessment， which is of great significance to reduce the losses and accidents caused by lightning disasters and lightning disaster early warning.

Key Words： Risk assessment; Ground lightning density; Lightning intensity; Lightning data

邵陽地形变化较大，地形类型多样，属江南丘陵大地形，以丘陵、山地为主，气候以中亚热带湿润季风为主。结合2016—2020年湖南省闪电定位监测数据以及雷电灾害统计资料，分析邵阳地区地闪活动及雷电灾害的时空分布特征[1]，探讨雷电灾害与致灾因子、承灾体以及孕灾环境的相关性[2]，分析雷电活动及雷灾特征，提出相应的雷电灾害防御措施及建议。关于雷击灾害，地闪活动频繁活跃是雷电灾害的主要致灾因子[3-4];雷电灾害的时空分布与地闪次数、密度和强度的分布特征存在较好的吻合对应关系[5-7]，正地闪所占比例的季节变化特征可以作为判定雷电高发期开始及结束的一个重要标志。……