基于供给侧改革的农民工职业选择分析

摘    要：以中部地区农民工输出重镇湖北省、江西省、安徽省农民工就业现状调查数据为依托，采取多元回归Logistic模型，分析农民工人力资本与农民工职业选择问题。研究表明，年龄、文化程度、性别、培训、经验和健康等变量与外出农民工职业选择总体显著相关，但各变量对各行业的影响程度和方向存在差异，导致农民工职业流向和选择差异。政府应加强农民工职业教育提升农民工人力资本，实现农民工从体能型向技能型转变;进一步完善农民工社会保障体系，保障农民工劳动健康;城乡、产业融合促进农民工回流创业就业破解农村发展不平衡不充分问题。

关键词：职业选择;供给侧改革;农民工;人力资本

中图分类号：F323.6;F249.21         文献标识码：A          DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2021.12.007

Analysis on the Career Choice of Migrant Workers based on the Supply Side Reform

LI Meizhang

（Jiujiang Vocational University，  Jiujiang， Jiangxi 332000， China）

Abstract： Based on the survey data of the employment status of migrant workers in Hubei Province， Jiangxi Province and Anhui Province， this paper adopted multiple regression logistic model to analyze the human capital and career choice of migrant workers. The study showed that age， education level， gender， training， experience and health were significantly related to the career choice of migrant workers， but there were differences in the degree and direction of the impact of quantity on various industries， which led to differences in the career flow and choice of migrant workers. The government should strengthen the vocational education of migrant workers， improve the human capital of migrant workers， realize the transformation of migrant workers from physical type to skill type; further improve the social security system of migrant workers， ensure the health of migrant workers; promote the integration of urban and rural areas and industries to promote the return of migrant workers to entrepreneurship and employment to solve the problem of unbalanced rural development.

Key words： career choice; supply-side reform; migrant workers; human capital

收稿日期：2021-08-14

基金项目：江西省高校人文社会科学研究规划项目（SH17103）;江西省教育科学“十三五”规划课题（18YB347）

作者简介：李美长（1966—），男，江西九江人，教授，主要从事农业经济和农村職业教育方面研究。

基于供给侧改革的农民工职业选择分析

供给侧结构性改革是经济新常态下推动经济转型，实现经济健康、可持续发展的重大举措。经济增长速度显著下降是我国经济发展进入新常态的突出表征之一。2015年和2016年我国国内生产总值增长率分别只有6.9%，6.7%，大大低于改革开放后9.66%的年均增长率。经济增长速度下降的同时，产业结构也在逐渐发生变化，第二产业占国内生产总值比重逐渐下降，而第三产业所占比重则不断上升。……