新冠大流行之际，该如何理财？

梅甘·迪特罗里奥

Youve heard it on the news， from your dad， and from your friends in banking： COVID-19 is catapulting1 the U.S. into an economic recession. Its a tumultuous2 time， but that doesnt mean you have to approach your finances blindly. We tapped3 Sallie Krawcheck， banking veteran and founder of female-focused financial planning service Ellevest， to answer your questions about investing and money management during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Everyone says were on the brink of an economic depression. Is that true？

I started my career as a research analyst covering the stock market. I have always thought that the stock market talks to us and tells us what is happening， though sometimes its hard to interpret. The stock market is telling us that we are in a recession， probably a depression. Its telling us that by the fact that it has declined so much， so fast. It was the worst first quarter in 100+ years， and the fastest move from what we call a bull market （an upward trending， robust， strong stock market） to whats called a bear market， where we fall more than 20 percent （and our market has been down more than 30 percent）.

Does that mean its too late to sell stocks？

The number one and number two questions we get at Ellevest （and they change in order） is： Should I be buying and should I be selling？ Typically， the answer to both is no. If you follow your instinct today and get out， youre likely going to miss the upturn. The upturn after one of these declines tends to happen before its clear that were coming out of the recession.

This idea of “If I can see whats coming， can I take action？” is wrong. What you should do is something called rebalancing your portfolio （meaning buying or selling assets to maintain a desired level of asset allocation or risk）. Lets say you started off with an investment portfolio thats made up of 70 percent equity and 30 percent bonds， which is a pretty risky portfolio. With that portfolio， over time you should earn higher returns. Because of whats going on in the stock market， maybe youre now no longer at 70-30， youre at 55-45. Maybe you want to go back to 70-30， which means you want to buy equity and sell bonds. This rebalancing back to your goal can actually force you to make counter-intuitive decisions that you wouldnt otherwise make.

I literally just got into investing. Should I stop？

I would continue， assuming that youre in good financial shape （you have an emergency fund and little debt）. Dont look at your existing balance， because its just going to upset you. By investing a percent of every paycheck， buying stocks low and selling them high， youll do much better than if you tried to guess the market. Even the people on CNBC， who talk so confidently on when its the right time to buy and sell， typically do not do better than average. Remember， we have recovered from every single recession in history. If history is any guide， we will also recover from， this one， even if its bumpy.

Im recently unemployed due to    COVID-19. What can I do？

It depends on your personal circumstance. Unemployment will be expanded， particularly for people who didnt have unemployment insurance， like freelancers. But for some people， it will still mean spending through your emergency funds. For some people its going to mean， unfortunately， running up credit card debt. If those things are happening to you， stop investing. Instead， go into conservation mode： You need to replenish your emergency fund and pay down credit card debt before you begin to invest again.

What steps can I take to restore financial health？

Sit down and make a list of every area where youre spending money and where you can begin to cut. Some obvious ones right now are going out to eat and travel. Use those funds to pay down credit card debt. Get rid of unnecessary subscriptions， like Netflix and Hulu. Youre not going to save a million dollars， but it adds up to make a difference.

Everyone is talking about an emergency fund. What do I do if I dont have one—and how can I start one？

Our recommendation has always been to build up a period of three to six months of take-home （after taxes） pay and put that money in a FDIC insured savings account， which means the government insures that money. You dont earn a lot on it， but its insured. If you have not built an emergency fund， its never too late to start one. Its going to be a matter of what we just talked about： On the other side of all of this， where can you reduce expenses？

If you have savings and credit card debt， use your savings to pay off your debt. This may be a little counterintuitive， but your savings are not earning you anything， and the credit card debt is costing you a lot.

Ive been saving for a short-term investment... like purchasing a home in five years. Help.

That goal is pretty near-term and youll need to spend that money soon， so at Ellevest we wouldnt invest much in the stock market. The reason we dont is because of times like this [unexpected recessions]. More funds should be in bonds or debt. Whereas stocks are the ownership of a sliver of a bigger company， like IBM， debt or bonds actually owe you money. Debt tends to be less sexy than stocks because the stock market can go up， but for debt you only get back the amount you lent， with interest. Assuming your investments are done like this， you should be okay. It might take 6 months longer to buy your home， but youll still be able to do it.

Conversely， for a longer-term investment， like retirement， you should have more equity—which is more risk， but typically over time， its a greater return.

When do you predict the recovery of our economy will start？

I would expect more volatility in the stock market. I think it will get better before we fully recognize that were coming out of the recession. I dont think well see a full recovery， frankly， until we have some resolution to the virus.

Every downturn feels worse than every one that came before when youre actually in it. This one feels particularly tough because its about our health. But， again， we have recovered from recession every time in history. This time， it may take a little bit longer， but the entrepreneurial spirit of the United States of America will come out on the other hand and drive the stock market even higher.

從新闻以及家人和在银行工作的朋友那里，你已有所耳闻：新冠疫情使美国突然陷入经济衰退。这是个纷乱动荡的阶段，但并不意味着你只得盲目地处理个人财务。我们特邀萨莉·克劳切克——银行业资深人士，女性财务规划服务平台Ellevest创始人——回答您有关新冠疫情大流行期间投资与理财的问题。

人人都说我们濒临经济萧条。这是真的吗？

我职业生涯的起点是股市的研究分析师。我一直认为，股市会跟我们交谈，并告诉我们正在发生什么事儿，尽管有时难以解读。股市在告诉我们，我们正处于衰退，很可能是萧条中。股市下跌得如此之多、如此之快，它是用这样的事实来告诉我们的。2020年头三个月，是一百多年来股市表现最差的第一季度，从我们所说的牛市（行情上行、稳健而强劲的股市）向熊市的转变最为迅速。在熊市里股价下跌会超过20%（而我们的市场现在已经跌了超过30%）。

那是否意味着卖出股票为时已晚？

我们在Ellevest被问到的第一个和第二个问题（排序不分先后）是：我该买入吗？我该卖出吗？通常，两者的答案都是“否”。如果你今天听凭直觉逃出了市场，那么你很可能将错过回升。类似的下跌会有多次，某次下跌后的回升往往发生在确定将走出衰退之前。

“如果能觉察即将发生的事，我可以采取行动吗？”这个想法是错误的。你应当做的是调整投资组合（即买入或卖出资产，以保持期望的资产配置或风险水平）。比如说，你开始时的投资组合由70%的股票和30%的债券构成，这是一个相当有风险的组合。……