21世纪美国情报管理制度变革动因研究*
——基于“利益与风险”协同框架

邹纯龙 马海群 王 今

(1.黑龙江大学中国语言文学博士后流动站 哈尔滨 150080；2.黑龙江大学信息资源管理研究中心 哈尔滨 150080；3.吉林大学商学院 长春 130012)

The Motivation of U.S. Information Management System Reform in the 21stCentury——Based on the Collaborative Framework of "Interests and Risks"

Zou Chunlong1,2Ma Haiqun2Wang Jin3

(1. Chinese Language and Literature of Postdoctoral Research Station, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080；2. Research Center of Information Resources Management, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080；3. Business School of Jilin University, Changchun 130012)

Abstract: [Purpose/Significance]Since the 21stcentury, industrial society and risk society are intertwined and overlapped. How to improve the information management system to effectively allocate information resources has become an important solution to overall security and development. [Method/Process] This paper takes American information management system as the research object, combining with the event system theory, risk society theory and related research, constructs the motivation framework from three dimensions of event attribute, interest factor and risk element. By introducing 22 representative cases of American information management system reform, it analyzes determinants with the help of qualitative comparative analysis method. From the perspective of interests and risks, the study reveals three kinds of combination factors and evolution characteristics of American information management system reform. [Result/Conclusion] In the construction and reform of the information management system, China should pay attention to the advantages of the system, explore and design the information management system in line with the guidance of the overall national security concept, so as to better manage the information work, optimize the process of information resource allocation, and achieve the double goals of expected interest demand and risk control.

Keywords: information management system; event system theory; risk society theory; reform motivations

2014年4月，习近平总书记在主持召开中央国家安全委员会第一次会议时提出，要坚持总体国家安全观[1]，该理念的提出，对情报管理制度建设提出了更高的要求。21世纪以来，工业社会与风险社会交织重叠，信息技术迅猛发展，催生着社会、生活、文化种种领域的变迁，却也不断加剧各领域的差距，人类社会的异质性逐渐凸显，各种风险事件层出不穷[2]。因此，涉及国家安全和社会稳定的情报工作成为各界关注的重点，而如何完善情报管理制度以有效的配置情报资源，是统筹安全与发展的重要解决之道。所以，把握情报管理制度变革过程中的重要驱动因素，对优化现有体系结构和运行机理，实现情报资源最优配置意义重大。与此同时，“9·11”事件的发生使全世界陷入到风险世界的焦虑中，而后的反思也使美国情报界展开了一系列大刀阔斧的改革[3-5]。因此追溯其演进历程，探究美国情报管理制度的变革路径及驱动因素，对于完善中国情报管理制度建设具有重要借鉴意义[6]。

鉴于此，为探究何种因素在推动情报管理制度变革过程中发挥着重要作用，本研究将结合事件系统理论、风险社会理论和相关研究，从事件属性、利益要素和风险要素三个维度，构建影响因素的分析框架，通过引入22个具有代表性的美国情报管理制度变革案例，借助定性比较分析方法对推进动因进行考察。……