气候变化和人类活动影响下径流演变研究进展

慕星 赵勇 刘欢 何国华

摘 要：受气候变化和人类活动的双重影响，流域/区域径流量发生了明显改变。分析气候变化和人类活动影响下的径流时空变化特征，并量化分解两者对径流的影响，已成为水文学领域研究的热点。综述了径流演变趋势检验方法和归因分析方法的研究进展，归纳具有代表性的国内外研究成果，总结各类方法的优势、局限性及应用范围，进一步指出该领域研究的薄弱环节和未来研究趋势，提出利用高新技术手段加强对极端水文事件和无资料地区的径流演变研究，探索气候变化和人类活动对径流演变的驱动机理。

关键词：气候变化;人类活动;径流演变;趋势检验;归因分析

中图分类号：TV121;P333 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.05.007

Abstract： Variations in streamflow are influenced by climate change and human activities. Hydrological research has been focused on analyzing the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow and quantifying their responses to climate change and human activities. This paper summarized the research advances of the methods of trend detection and attribution analysis for streamflow variation. Meanwhile， the representative research results at home and abroad had been reviewed. Advantages， limitations and applications of different methods also had been discussed. Finally， it further pointed out the weaknesses in this field and development trend of future research.It is necessary to strengthen the study of streamflow variation in extreme hydrological events and areas without data by means of high and new technology. Additionally， the driving mechanism of climate change and human activities on streamflow variation remain to be explored.

Key words： climate change; human activities; streamflow variation; trend detection; attribution analysis

在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下，径流发生或增或减且程度不同的变化，流域/区域水资源时空分布不均等问题愈发突出[1-2]，直接影响经济社会用水和生态需水保障[3-4]。近几十年来，关于径流演变规律及驱动因素的研究一直是水文领域的热点[4-6]，国内外学者的研究已经从起初的定性分析转变到当前的定量计算阶段[7]。气候变化和人类活动产生的作用是复杂和综合的，如何定量解析两者对径流演变的影响是研究中的一个核心问题[8-10]，其关键手段是径流演变的趋势检验和归因分析，宋晓猛等[11]定义了两者的概念，指出检验是为了讨论序列的变化以及变化的趋势，归因是为了研究哪些驱动因素导致了序列的变化、定量半定量地分解驱动因素对序列所产生变化的贡献率。……