宁夏水资源与产业发展协调关系分析

黄新蕊 贾玲 陈丹 游进军 郭志辉

摘 要：全面提升水资源利用效率，加快节水型社会建设已成为水资源约束下经济社会发展的必要路径。为促进经济社会发展与水资源承载能力相协调，在测度宁夏产业结构与水资源相关关系和关联度的基础上，分析了不同用水效率水平下可承载的产业发展规模与产业结构优化调整方案。研究表明：宁夏第一产业和第三产业构成与其用水量构成的相关关系较强，这与产业发展对水资源的依赖程度有关;宁夏第三产业发展以特色旅游和农副产品销售为主，与第一产业融合度高，水资源对产业结构有较强的约束作用，产业结构调整空间较大。宁夏未来应以限制农业发展规模为基础、引进先进节水技术为支撑，推动产业由第一产业向第二、第三产业发展，高耗水工业向高新技术工业发展，传统服务业向现代服务业发展，逐步实现产业结构优化升级。

关键词：水资源;产业结构;相关分析;协调关系;宁夏

中圖分类号：TV213.9 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.05.014

Abstract： It has become the necessary path of economic and social development under the constraint of water resources to comprehensively improve the utilization efficiency of water resources and accelerate the construction of water-saving society. In order to promote the coordination between the development of economic society and water resources carrying capacity， this paper analyzed the adjustment scheme of the industrial development scale and industrial structure optimization under different levels of water utilization efficiency， based on the measurement of the correlation and relevancy between industrial structure and water resources in Ningxia. The results show that the composition of primary industries and tertiary industries in Ningxia has a strong correlation with the composition of water consumption， which is related to the degree of dependence of industrial development on water resources. The development of tertiary industries in Ningxia is dominated by characteristic tourism and sales of agricultural and sideline products， which is highly integrated with the primary industries. Water resources have a strong constraint effect on industrial structure and there is a large space for industrial structure adjustment. In the future， Ningxia should be supported by limiting the scale of agricultural development， introducing advanced water-saving technology and promoting the development of industries from primary to secondary and tertiary industries. Water intensive industries should be developed into high-tech industries and traditional service industries should be developed into modern service industries. The industrial structure should be optimized and upgraded step by step.

Key words： water resources; industrial structure; correlation analysis; coordination relationship; Ningxia

宁夏回族自治区地处中国西北部，属于经济欠发达地区，经济增长方式较为单一。2018年，全区GDP为3 705亿元，第一、第二、第三产业比例为8.2∶40.2∶51.6。第一产业对GDP的贡献率较小，第二产业发展方式较为粗放，对第三产业的带动能力不足，农业、工业和服务业三者之间水资源供需矛盾突出。在水资源可利用量有限的约束条件下，需对现行的经济增长模式以及供用水结构进行优化调整，以保证区域水资源的可持续利用和经济社会健康可持续发展。……