模糊区间型综合决策方法在水质评价中的应用

黄瑞 韩龙喜 张防修 彭辉

摘 要：污染事故对水质安全构成了严重威胁，污染事故水质评价可以准确判定事故对水质的影响。针对传统水质评价模型存在不能反映水质监测值动态变化特征、水质优劣指标间相互过度补偿，以及无法区分同一类型水质优劣的问题，构建模糊区间型多属性综合评价模型，改进现有水质评价方法。该模型将水质监测信息集按一定规则聚合转换成区间数，开展水质监测测度区间与各类水质标准区间的相似度判定，基于优化主客观综合赋权法开展水质指标赋权，并采用模糊综合评价法计算待测水体模糊综合评价指数，确定水质类别。将模糊区间型多属性综合评价模型应用于大伙房水库暴雨后水质变化分析的实例表明：评价模型生成的模糊综合评价指数可以区分出同类水质的优劣，改进模型适用于特大暴雨等突发污染事故的水质评价研究。

关键词：水质评价;模糊数学;区间数;多属性决策;相似度;组合赋权;模糊评价综合指数

中图分类号：X824;TV697.1+9 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.05.020

Abstract： Pollution accidents pose a serious threat to the safety of water quality. Water quality assessment of pollution accidents can accurately determine the impact of accidents on water quality. The traditional water quality evaluation model can not reflect the dynamic change characteristics of water quality monitoring values and it has the problem of overcompensation between good and bad indexes in the process of evaluation. Moreover， it cannot distinguish the quality of the same grade of water quality， so a fuzzy interval multi-attribute comprehensive water quality evaluation model has been built to improve the effect of existing water quality assessment methods. In this model， the information set of water quality monitoring was aggregated into interval numbers according to certain rules and the similarity between the water quality monitoring measurement interval and various water quality standard intervals was determined. Based on the optimization subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method， the water quality index was weighted and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to calculate the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of the water to be evaluated， so as to determine the water quality. The application of the fuzzy interval multi-attribute comprehensive water quality evaluation model to the analysis of water quality changes before and after the rainstorm in Dahuofang Reservoir shows that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index generated by the evaluation model can distinguish the advantages and disadvantages of the same water quality and the improved model is suitable for the study of water quality evaluation of sudden pollution accidents such as heavy rainstorm.

Key words： water quality evaluation; fuzzy mathematics; interval number; multiple attribute decision making; similarity degree; combined weight; fuzzy evaluation comprehensive index

水質安全对经济发展及社会稳定具有重要意义，而近年来发生的一系列水污染事故对水质安全构成了严重威胁。污染事故水质评价可以准确判定事故对水质的影响，为政府制定应急预案提供依据。单因子水质评价法将评价指标中最差指标的类型作为整体水质类型，这种评价方法过于保守，不利于水资源的科学利用[1]。因此，学者们就水质多属性综合评价开展了广泛研究，以权重反映各指标在水质综合评价中的重要性，基于模糊数学[2-5]、神经网络[6-9]、集对分析[10-12]等方法将水质的多属性特征映射为一个综合评价指标。……