水工盾构隧道施工安全风险综合评价与判定

汪伦焰 王若腾 赵荣生

摘 要：随着地下空间的开发利用，盾构法成为隧道工程施工的主流。近年来在盾构隧道风险评价中，风险的随机性和模糊性常被忽视，评价结果没有比对，无法确定重要因素，因此为解决风险评估过程的不确定性，提出基于熵权-集对分析-云模型的盾构隧道施工安全风险综合评价模型。首先，通过梳理文献构建评价指标体系;其次，采用熵权法计算指标权重，基于集对分析理论对风险因素进行初步判定;最后，基于云理论整合专家评价的随机性和模糊性，构建盾构隧道施工安全风险云模型，并用云模型评估施工安全风险的等级，将风险因素与初步判定结果进行比对得到最终评价结果。以某水资源配置工程为例，验证了该评价模型是有效可行的。

关键词：盾构隧道;熵权法;集对分析;云模型;施工安全;风险评价

中图分类号：TV523 文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.05.028

Abstract： With the development and utilization of underground space， shield method has become the mainstream of tunnel construction. In recent years， the randomness and fuzziness of the risk are often ignored in the risk assessment of shield tunnel. There is no comparison between the assessment results and it is impossible to determine the important factors. Therefore， in order to solve the uncertainty of the risk assessment process， a comprehensive risk assessment model of shield tunnel construction based on entropy weight set pair analysis cloud modelwas proposed. Firstly， the evaluation index system was constructed from the aspect of 5M1E by literature frequency method; secondly， the index weight was calculated by entropy weight method and the risk factors were preliminarily determined based on set pair analysis theory; finally， the safety risk cloud model of shield tunnel construction was constructed by integrating the randomness and fuzziness of expert evaluation based on cloud theory. The construction safety risk was evaluated by cloud model and the final evaluation results were obtained by comparing the risk factors with the preliminary judgment results. Through the application of the model in a water resources allocation project， it is verified that the evaluation model is effective and feasible.

Key words： shield tunnel; entropy weight method; set pair analysis; cloud model; construction safety; risk evaluation

盾構法作为隧道工程的主要施工方法

应用广泛，以该方法施工的隧道线路长度占据地下隧道线路施工总长度的50%以上[1]。盾构隧道施工线路多处于人口稠密、环境复杂的城市地区，安全事故屡见不鲜。隧道工程投资大、建设周期长，施工技术要求高、地质条件不确定性大，给盾构隧道的施工埋下安全隐患，因此其工程施工安全问题需要引起管理者重视。如何全面有效、准确直观地确定施工安全风险等级，有针对性地对风险因素进行控制，是隧道工程安全管理领域的研究重点。……