智能制造、劳动替代与无集体挤出

汪华 詹绍康

关键词：智能制造;“机器换人”;岗位替代;内部劳动力市场

摘 要：中国沿海地区近年大力推进自动化机器的应用，在产生岗位替代效应的同时，为什么没有出现显著的失业问题？对长三角和珠三角制造业企业的田野调查表明，技术进步確实会造成一定程度的岗位替代效应，但岗位替代并不必然意味着劳动者立即被抛向劳动力市场。在工人被岗位替代之后、在被抛向外部劳动力市场之前，事实上中间还有一个过渡地带——内部劳动力市场。正是这一内部劳动力市场的缓冲效应，使得“机器换人”虽然产生了显著的岗位替代效应，但并未产生显著的把劳动者挤出企业用工体系而抛向外部劳动力市场的问题。

中图分类号：C913文献标志码：A文章编号：1001-2435（2021）04-0085-10

Intelligent Manufacturing， Labor Substitution and No Collective Crowding-out—A Sociological Study of the Impact of “Machine Substitution” on Workers Employment

WANG Hua， ZHAN Shao-kang（School of Social and Public Administration， East China University of Science and Technology， Shanghai 200237， China）

Key words： intelligent manufacturing; “machine substitution”; job substitution; internal labor market

Abstract： Chinas coastal areas have vigorously promoted the application of automated machines in recent years. With generating the job substitution effect， why did not there appear significant unemployment problems in China？ Based on a field survey of manufacturing enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta， this paper argues that technological progress does cause a certain degree of job substitution; however， job substitution does not necessarily mean that workers are immediately thrown into the labor market. After workers are replaced by machines and before they are thrown into the external labor market， there is a transition zone in the middle—the internal labor market. It is the buffering effect of the internal labor market that although “machine substitution” has produced a significant job substitution effect， it has not caused a significant problem of crowding workers out of the enterprises employment system and throwing them into the external labor market.

一、研究问题

随着全球经济深度调整以及发达国家不断推进“制造业回归”和“再工业化”的战略，全球制造业高端化竞争趋势日益明显。在此发展背景下，中国政府提出创新驱动的新发展战略，积极推动以自动化装备提升传统产业，发展基于工业化与信息化“两化融合”的新型制造产业之路，大力推进智能制造。2014年，随着国家《关于推进工业机器人产业发展的指导意见》及各项扶持政策的出台，“机器换人”率先在珠三角和长三角地区轰轰烈烈地开展起来，并随之在全国掀起了一场“机器换人”的浪潮。

牛津大学与花旗银行联合发布的一份报告指出，2015年以来在中国投入机器人设备平均两年内就可以收回成本。……