基于M-K、小波和RS方法的黑河上游来水预测

陈子豪 李莹莹 李凯 董国涛

摘 要：黑河進入丰水期已长达十几年之久，为合理预测黑河上游来水过程，减小枯水期对中游农业用水和下游生态用水的影响，同时为正在黑河干流上游兴建的黄藏寺水利枢纽工程建设期防洪度汛工作提供参考，基于M-K突变分析、Morlet连续复小波变换分析和R/S分析等方法，对黑河干流上游莺落峡水文站年径流量演变情况进行了预测。结果表明：1954—2017年莺落峡站年径流量整体呈上涨趋势，2011年发生了突变，此后上升趋势显著，2011—2017年年平均径流量比多年平均径流量多4.23亿m3，1954—2010年年平均径流量比多年平均径流量少0.51亿m3;莺落峡站年径流量变化主要受到28 a和13 a两个主周期的影响，根据周期变化情况，莺落峡站年径流量在第一主周期的影响下仍将处于上升趋势，但随着第二主周期峰期向谷期的过渡，上升趋势出现波动;Hurst指标表明莺落峡站年径流量具有长期相关性，未来整体变化趋势与过去一致的可能性很大，即莺落峡站年径流量仍将保持上涨趋势。

关键词：年径流量;预测;M-K;小波;R/S;黑河

中图分类号：TV121   文献标志码：A

doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2021.12.006

引用格式：陈子豪，李莹莹，李凯，等.基于M-K、小波和R/S方法的黑河上游来水预测[J].人民黄河，2021，43（12）：29-34.

Abstract： The Heihe River has entered the period of rich water for more than ten years. In order to reasonably predict the water inflow process in the upper reaches of the Heihe River， reduce the effect of dry season on the agricultural water use in the middle reaches and the ecological water use in the lower reaches， and provide reference for flood-control work of the Huangzangsi Water Conservancy Project which is being built on the upper reaches of Heihe River main stream， the approaches such as M-K-Based mutation analysis， Morlet continuous wavelet transform analysis and R/S analysis were employed to predict the annual runoff evolution of Yingluo Gorge in the upper reaches of Heihe River main stream. In accordance with the results， the following conclusions can be drawn： the annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge has an overall upward trend from 1954 to 2017. In 2011， a sudden change occurred， which was the abrupt change point， and since then， the trend has been significantly upward. The datum show that the average annual runoffs from 2011 to 2017 are always higher than 423 million m3 which is the average runoff for many years and that the annual average runoff from 1954 to 2010 is lower than 51 million m3 which is the average runoff for many years. The annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge is mainly affected by two main periods. According to the periodic variation， there is a continuous upward trend for the annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge under the influence of the first main period. However， there also exists the fluctuation in the upward trend with the transition from peak period to alley period in the second main period. Hurst index indicates that there exists a long-term correlation characteristic in the annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge， and that there is a great possibility that the overall change trend of the annual runoff in the future will be consistent with the past. It means that the annual runoff of Yingluo Gorge will probably keep an upward trend.

Key words： annual runoff; prediction; M-K; wavelet; R/S; Heihe River

黑河是我国第二大内陆河，发源于青海省祁连山脉，上游分为东西两岔，分别为八宝河和黑河，两岔交汇于青海省祁连县，流经黑河大峡谷，出山口为莺落峡，其上为黑河上游，莺落峡水文站采集的径流量数据代表了黑河干流主要地表水资源量，是实施中下游分水方案的重要依据[1]。……