应急医疗物资战略储备与轮库分析

霍佳震 张嘉伟 许世岩

摘 要：   新冠疫情的局部暴发对各地应急物资保供发起了严峻挑战，为了保证医疗物资的及时供应，需要对口罩、防护服、呼吸机等应急医疗物资进行战略储备，这些物资虽然具有长达数年的保质期，但在保质期间再次发生重大突发公共卫生事件的概率较小。为了减少过期所造成的浪费，论文以口罩为例建立库存轮换政策，参考上海在疫情期间的产能，从时间维度与空间维度考虑需求系数并通过SEIR模型模拟疫情传播所带来的口罩需求波动，综合上海人口、医疗机构水平等因素建立系统动力学模型并进行仿真分析。结果表明：医疗物资的储备是必要的，能够帮助区域更好地应对突发状况带来的需求与产能冲击，同时轮库政策可以在一定程度上减少医疗物资因过期而导致的损失。

关键词：  应急医疗物资；库存轮换；系统动力学分析；SEIR模型

中图分类号：  F 062

文献标志码：   A

Analysis of Strategic Reserve and Rotation Policy of EmergencyMedical Supplies： Taking Masks as an Example

HUO Jiazhen ZHANG Jiawei XU Shiyan

（School of Economics and Management， Tongji University， Shanghai 200092， China）

Abstract：  With the local outbreak of the covid-19 epidemic， it has posed severe challenges to the emergency supplies in various places. In order to ensure the timely supply of medical supplies， it is necessary to carry out strategic reserves of emergency medical supplies such as masks、protective suit and ventilators. Although these reserves have a long-term shelf life， the probability of a major public health emergency occurring again during the shelf life is relatively small. In order to reduce the waste caused by expiration， this article takes masks as an example to establish an inventory rotation policy. According to Shanghais production capacity during the epidemic， the demand coefficient is considered from the time dimension and space dimension and uses the SEIR model to simulate the fluctuations in demand for masks caused by the spread of the epidemic.Integrating factors such as Shanghais population and the level of medical institutions， a system dynamics model is established and simulated. The results show that the storage of medical supplies is necessary， which can help the region better cope with the impact of demand and production capacity brought by emergencies. Meanwhile， the round-storage policy can reduce the loss caused by the expiration of medical supplies to a certain extent.

Key words：  emergency medical supplies; inventory rotation; system dynamics analysis; SEIR model

重大突發公共卫生灾害的高不确定性、高响应要求、高物资需求、长持续时间和宽覆盖范围等特点急剧放大了其对经济与社会运行的破坏力，并对应急物资保障的供应链管理理论与实践提出了严峻挑战。2022年3月，由于疫情的不确定性，上海新冠疫情再次暴发，封控地区群众的生活需求难以得到保障。回顾2020年疫情暴发初期，医疗物资等日产能与日产量出现了短期内短缺的情况，随着需求的稳定，上海市经信委于2022年3月份报道：“上海市普通口罩日产能5082万只、日产量1334万只；……