中国城乡高质量协调发展的动态演进和影响因素研究

王念念　郑金辉

摘 要：基于2007—2019年省域面板数据，从高质量发展的五大理念及乡村振兴的五个方面出发重构城乡发展的指标体系，计算出城乡两个子系统的耦合协调水平，以此来衡量中国城乡高质量协调发展水平，对该协调水平的动态演进及区域差异进行了分析，在此基础上通过空间计量模型对其影响因素进行了研究。研究发现：中国城乡高质量协调发展水平稳步提升，且呈东、中、西部依次递减的分布特征，但整体发展水平差异较大。各省份协调发展水平区域差異不断缩小且主要来源于地区内差异，东、西、中部地区对地区内差异的贡献率依次递减。人力资本、外商投资、产业结构、经济水平和金融水平对城乡高质量协调发展水平具有显著的影响，是促进城乡高质量协调发展的关键因素。

关键词：城乡高质量协调发展；耦合协调；动态演进；空间杜宾模型

中图分类号：F 291.3

文献标志码：A

Study on the Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of High-QualityCoordinated Development of Urban and Rural Areas in China

WANG Niannian ZHENG Jinhui

（School of Economics， Zhejiang University of Technology， Hangzhou 310023， China）

Abstract：Based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2019， this paper reconstructs the indicator system of urban and rural development from the five concepts of high-quality development and five aspects of rural revitalization， calculates the coupling and coordination level of the two subsystems of urban and rural areas， to measure the level of high-quality coordinated development of urban and rural areas in China， and analyzes the dynamic evolution and regional differences of this coordination level. On this basis， the influencing factors were studied through spatial econometric models. Research has found that the level of high-quality coordinated development between urban and rural areas in China has steadily improved， with a decreasing distribution pattern in the eastern， central， and western regions， but there is a significant difference in overall development levels. The regional differences in the level of high-quality coordinated development among different provinces are constantly narrowing， mainly due to intra regional differences. The contribution rates of the eastern， western， and central regions to intra regional differences are decreasing in sequence. Human capital， foreign investment， industrial structure， economic level， and financial level have a significant impact on the level of high-quality coordinated development between urban and rural areas， and are key factors in promoting high-quality coordinated development between urban and rural areas.

Key words：high-quality coordinated development of urban and rural areas; coupling coordination; dynamic evolution; spatial Durbin model

0 引言

“十四五”时期，中国立足新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，构建新发展格局。在此背景下，促进城乡高质量协调发展成为必然要求。党的十九大报告明确指出，中国社会主要矛盾已经转化为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分发展之间的矛盾，其中不平衡不充分发展突出表现为城乡发展的不平衡和农村发展的不充分。近年来，中国经济发展进步飞速，城镇化、工业化已步入中后期，人民的物质和精神生活得到了极大的改善，城乡面貌焕然一新，但城乡发展不平衡问题仍然较为突出，推动城乡高质量协调发展是能否实现经济高质量发展进而实现共同富裕的关键所在。……