基于主成分分析的河南省粮食产量影响因素研究

杨娟++王帅++骆云中

摘要：为了探明河南省粮食产量变化的主要驱动力，明确不同因素对粮食产量变化影响的大小，基于1978-2014年面板数据，运用主成分分析法，建立计量经济模型对该期间影响河南省粮食产量波动的因素进行研究。结果表明，影响河南省粮食产量变化的前三位驱动力分别为经济发展与农业资本投入、劳动与土地投入、成本-收益。具体来看，河南省粮食产量与社会经济水平呈正相关关系，粮食产量的增长主要取决于农业机械总动力、化肥施用量、农村用电量，弹性系数高达0.045；第一产业就业人数对粮食产量增长为正影响，其弹性系数为0.028；受灾面积对粮食产量增长呈负影响，弹性系数为-0.022；耕地面积、粮食播种面积对粮食产量增长的贡献不显著，弹性系数分别为0.021、0.020；而农业生产资料价格指数与粮食零售价格指数对粮食产量影响极小，弹性系数仅为0.006与0.003。

关键词：粮食产量；驱动力；影响因素；主成分分析；弹性系数

中图分类号：F301.2 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2017）13-2587-06

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2017.13.046

Study on Factors Influencing the Grain Yield of Henan Province Based on Principal Component Analysis

YANG Juan1，WANG Shuai2，LUO Yun-zhong1

（1.School of Resources and Environment，Southwest University，Chongqing 400715，China；

2.Shanxi Provincial Land Engineering Construction Group， Xian 710075， China）

Abstract： To ascertain the main driving factors for grain yield change of Henan province and verify the influence of different factors on the change， an econometric model was built based on the panel data from 1978 to 2014 and principal component analysis， to explore the factors influencing the grain yield of Henan province during the period. The results showed that， the top three driving factors were economic development and agricultural capital investment， labor input， costs and benefits respectively. Specifically， the grain yield of Henan province was positive correlated with socio-economy level， which mainly depended on the total powers of agriculture machine， chemical fertilizer and rural power consumption， and the coefficient of elasticity was up to 0.045. While the employment in the primary industry had a “positive” influence on grain yield increase and the coefficient of elasticity was 0.028. The agricultural disaster area had a “negative” influence on grain yield increase and the coefficient of elasticity was -0.022. The contribution of the arable land area and grain acreage for grain yield growth was not significant and the coefficients of elasticity were 0.021 and 0.020 respectively， while the price index of agricultural means production and grain retail price index had less influence on grain yield， and the coefficients of elasticity were only 0.006 and 0.003.

Key words： grain yield； driving forces； influence factors； principal component analysis； the coefficients of elasticity

中國人均耕地数量不足全球平均水平的1/4，同时2/3以上的区域缺水，随着城镇化和工业化进程加快，资源环境压力将不断增大，粮食安全形势严峻。河南省粮食产量常年占全国的1/10，粮食自给率在140%左右，是粮食主产区之一。因此，河南省的粮食生产能力直接关系到中国粮食安全[1，2]。针对中国粮食生产问题，大量学者对此进行了深入探索，研究大多关注粮食生产格局[3，4]、阶段特征[5，6]、影响因素[7-9]等方面。……