基于重心模型的安徽省城镇化与生态环境匹配度分析

荣慧芳，方 斌

（1.南京师范大学地理科学学院，江苏 南京 210023；2.池州学院资源环境学院，安徽 池州 247000；3.南京师范大学新型城镇化与土地问题研究中心，江苏 南京 210023）

基于重心模型的安徽省城镇化与生态环境匹配度分析

荣慧芳1，2，方 斌1，3

（1.南京师范大学地理科学学院，江苏 南京 210023；2.池州学院资源环境学院，安徽 池州 247000；3.南京师范大学新型城镇化与土地问题研究中心，江苏 南京 210023）

研究目的：以2005—2014年的城镇化与生态环境综合指数为基础，运用重心模型测算安徽省城镇化发展与生态环境匹配度，探讨两者之间的交互作用，为政府在城镇化进程中如何保护环境提供决策依据。研究方法：熵值法、重心模型。研究结果：（1）安徽省城镇化发展和生态环境综合指数地区差异显著，生态环境质量随着城镇化水平的提升呈下滑趋势，“凸”“凹”相致，逆向明显；（2）城镇化重心与生态环境重心在东西方向的偏移幅度明显大于南北方向的偏移幅度；（3）城镇化重心、生态环境重心均向西南偏移，但前者的变化过程较后者更为明显；（4）城镇化与生态环境匹配度演化轨迹均呈M型，但整体匹配性较差，匹配年份仅占22.22%，平均匹配度仅为-0.1605。研究结论： 2005—2014年安徽省城镇化水平与生态环境状态整体处于较不匹配状态，提高城镇土地利用绩效，坚持集约、绿色和低碳的新型城镇化道路，是未来安徽省城镇化演进中破解环境问题的关键。

土地生态；城镇化；生态环境；匹配度；重心模型；安徽省

Abstract:The purpose of this paper is to measure the comprehensive values of urbanization and ecology in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2014, and to investigate the relationship between urbanization and ecology based on barycenter model, and then to provide guidance and reference for coordinated development. The entropy method and barycenter model are used in this paper. The results show that: 1）there exist significant regional differences regarding the index values of urbanization and ecology, and the value of ecology has a descending trend with the increase of the value of urbanization. The converse trend concerning the relationship between urbanization and ecology is notable; 2）the moving range of the gravity in regard to urbanization and ecology in the north-south direction is larger than that in the east-west direction; 3）the gravity of bothurbanization and ecology moves towards northwest, but the change of urbanization gravity is relatively obvious compared to the ecological one; 4）the matching degree between urbanization and ecology shows a M-type evolution, with the mean matching degree about -0.1605 and the proportion of matched years about 22.22%, which exhibits a relative inferior match in general. It is concluded that the matching degree between urbanization and ecology is in a state of roughly mismatch on the whole, while the improvement of the urban land use performance and the implement of the strategies of intensive, green and low-carbon new urbanization are the key points to solve the environmental problems in Anhui Province.

Key words:land ecology; urbanization; ecological system; matching degree; barycenter model; Anhui Province

1 引言

当前中国步入城镇化S型曲线的第二阶段，城镇化步伐加快[1]。……