济宁青山羊生长曲线的拟合与分析

王可 崔绪奎 刘昭华 楚惠民 张玉玉 司全军

摘要：为研究济宁青山羊的生长发育规律，本试验测定了不同性别济宁青山羊0～18月龄的体重，采用Von Bertalanffy、Gompertz和Logistic 3种非线性生长模型拟合其生长曲线。结果表明：3种模型均能较好地拟合济宁青山羊的生长曲线（R2>0.970），其中Von Bertalanffy模型的拟合结果更接近实际测量值，拟合效果最佳。进一步分析模型拟合参数以及估计值与实测值，提示公羊生长拐点为3.873月，拐点体重为10.379 kg；母羊生长拐点为3.635月，拐点体重为9.387 kg。3种模型估计的公羊拐点体重均高于母羊，拐点月龄均迟于母羊。

关键词：济宁青山羊；体重；生长曲线；拟合；分析；理想模型；生长潜力

中图分类号：S826.9文献标识号：A文章编号：1001-4942（2018）04-0112-04

Abstract To study the growth and development regularities of Jining grey goat， the weights of 0～18-month-old Jining grey goat with different sex were measured in the experiment. Their growth curve were fitted by three nonlinear growth models including Von Bertalanffy， Gompertz and Logistic. The results showed that all the three models could better fit the growth of Jining grey goat （R2>0.970）. The fitting results of Von Bertalanffy model was much closer to the actual values，so it had the best fitting effect. Through further study the fitting parameters and estimated values of Von Bertalanffy model and the actual values， we concluded that the inflection growth point of ram was at the age of 3.873 months and the corresponding body weight was 10.379 kg，while that of ewe was at the age of 3.635 months and the body weight was 9.387 kg. The inflection point weight of rams was higher than that of ewes， and the inflexion point age of rams was larger than that of ewes in the three models.

Keywords Jining grey goat； Body weight； Growth curve； Fitting； Analysis； Ideal model； Growth potential

生長曲线是动物在生长过程中，随着年龄的增长，生长发育数据的累积变化轨迹。不同动物的生长曲线具有一定的变化规律，这种规律呈现“S”型曲线变化[1]。动物的生长曲线可以利用非线性的数学模型进行拟合[2]，已报道有多种描述畜禽累积生长曲线的非线性数学模型。目前，常用于动物生长发育研究的非线性生长模型有Gompertz、Logistic和Von Bertalanffy等[3]。这3种模型准确度高，拟合度好，对动物的生长发育描述较为准确。利用拟合的生长曲线，可以预测家畜的生长速率及机体发育的变化，有助于了解不同品种、不同亲缘关系及不同性别之间的遗传品质，为品种选育提供参考。同时，通过了解动物生长发育过程中不同阶段的生长潜力，合理制定饲养管理方案，可以有效降低成本，尽快达到理想的体重，适时出栏，提高生产水平和经济效益。