杭州市会展业关联效应的实证分析

张永庆 张璐

摘 要：从产业关联理论出发，应用灰色关联分析，研究了杭州市会展业与第一、二、三产业以及地区生产总值的关联度，并分析了杭州市会展业与第一、二、三产业内部部分产业的关联度，发现杭州市会展业与地区生产总值的关联度大于与第一、二、三产业的关联度，关联度为0.724 8；会展业与第一产业内部农业的关联度最高，关联系数为0.800 5，与第二产业内部工业关联度最高，关联系数为0.593 0，与第三产业内部批发零售业关联度最高，关联系数为0.827 7.结果表明：杭州市会展业与第一、二、三产业以及生产总值均有较强的关联，会展业的发展带动了许多相关产业的发展，杭州会展业的发展能促进杭州经济增长和产业升级转型，并有利于优化产业结构。

关键词：会展业；产业关联；灰色关联分析；经济增长；产业升级

中图分类号：F 713.83；F 224 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2018）03-0312-06

Abstract：Based on the theory of industrial association and the grey correlation analysis，this paper made an empirical study on the correlation among the convention and exhibition industry and the first，second，third industry and gross regional product in Hangzhou city，analyzed the correlation among the Hangzhous exhibition industry and internal industries of the first，second and third industry.It is found that the correlation between Hangzhous exhibition industry and gross regional product is greater than the first，second and third industry，which the correlation degree is 0.724 8；The correlation between exhibition industry and agricultural industry in the first industry is the highest，which the correlation coefficient is 0.800 5.The correlation between exhibition industry and industrial industry in the second industry is the highest，which the correlation coefficient is 0.593 0.The correlation between exhibition industry and wholesale and retail industry in the third industry is the highest，which the correlation coefficient is 0.827 7.The results show that there is a strong correlation among the exhibition industry and the first，second and third industry and GDP in Hangzhou city.The development of exhibition industry leads to the development of many related industries，and the development of exhibition industry can promote the economic growth and industrial upgrading and transformation of Hangzhou，and it is helpful to optimize the industrial structure.

Key words：convention and exhibition industry；industrial association；grey relational analysis method；economic growth；industry upgrading

0 引 言

目前，我國三大新经济产业包括房地产业、旅游业、会展业。会展业是一种新兴的特殊服务业，它除了具有一般服务产业的特征外，对相关产业的发展也具有强大的关联效应，带动了相关产业的发展，并有效地促进了区域经济的增长与发展。对于举办会展活动的城市而言，举办会展活动不但能为城市带来巨大经济收益，提高了城市的知名度，而且还增强了经济贸易的交流与合作，改善了投资环境，从而促进城市经济的科学发展。

近些年来，国内不少学者针对会展业对经济发展的影响进行了相关研究，并得出了相应的结论。……