城市公共交通系统结构巢式建模与演化仿真

宋成举　王榕菁　孙雨晴

摘要：為了解不同出行条件对于城市公共交通系统结构的影响，分析城市公共交通系统结构在不同出行需求下的演化特征。从城市公共交通系统结构影响因素入手，划分不同巢式层次方案，依照筛选原则确定最优方案，从成本支出、个性偏好及主观感受三个方面构建不同巢的效用函数，其中成本支出包括货币成本和时间成本两部分，引入个性偏好修正系数，建立疲劳度系数模型，结合北京市公共交通系统结构运营数据标定模型参数，仿真分析城市公共交通系统结构演化趋势。结果表明：高收入群体选择常规公交出行的比例相对较低，更倾向于选择城市轨道交通，且随着出行距离的增长，出租车分担率呈上升趋势;随着单位时间价值量的增加，常规公交分担率在中距离出行条件下略有增加，而在长距离出行条件下，呈现先增加后降低的趋势;当成本偏好系数较大时，常规公交分担率随着出行距离的增大而呈现阶梯型降低。

关键词：交通工程;城市公共交通系统结构;巢式Logit;单位时间价值量;分担率;个性偏好

中图分类号：U491文献标识码：A文章编号：1006-8023（2019）03-0107-07

Nest Modeling and Evolution Simulation on Urban Public

Transport System Structure

SONG Chengju1， WANG Rongjing2， SUN Yuqing3

（1. School of Automotive and Transportation Engineering， Heilongjiang Institute of Technology， Harbin 150050;

2.Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co.， Limited， Beijing 100037;

3.Heilongjiang Branch CNPC Transportation Company Limited， Harbin 150010）

Abstract：To analyze the influence of different travel conditions on the urban public transport system structure， the evolutionary characteristics on the urban public transport system structure under different travel demand were studied. Started from the influencing factors on urban public transport system structure， divided into different nest program， according to the selection principles， the optimal scheme was determined， and the utility function for the different nest from the cost expenditure， the personality preference and the subjective feeling were constructed. The cost expenditure included the money cost and the time cost. Personality preference correction coefficient was introduced and the fatigue coefficient model was established. Combined with the Beijing public transport system structure operational data to calibrate model parameters， the evolutionary characteristics of urban public transport system structure was simulated. The results showed that： the proportion of the high-income groups selected bus was relatively low， preferring to choose urban rail transit， and with the increase of the travel distance， the taxi sharing rate was increasing. As the value of time（VOT） increasing， the bus sharing rate increased slightly under the condition of middle travel distance， while it appeared increasing first and decreasing later in long travel distance. When the cost preference coefficient was increasing， the bus share rate showed stepping down with the travel distance increasing.

Keywords：Traffic engineering; urban public transport system structure; nested logit; value of time; sharing rate; personality preference

0引言

城市公共交通系统是一个涵盖多主体的复杂巨系统，主要有服务设施、出行者、管理系统、载运工具和运行环境等部分，城市公共交通系统结构是指从城市运输角度来考察城市中某一时期各种公共交通方式中交通工具的比例或者完成城市客运量的份额比重。……