以江苏省为例的新冠肺炎传播评价

谢佳鑫

摘 要：新冠肺炎疫情（COVID-19）在湖北省武汉市爆发，正值春运，这个每逢春节最大规模人口流动的特殊时期，为了防止病毒扩散，中国政府在2020年1月23日采取了空前的全国性范围的干预措施，这些政策包括大规模的检疫隔离、严格的交通管制和对疑似病例的广泛监测。然而，这些措施执行是否严格及时对流行病蔓延的影响是未知的，希望展示出行管制措施对流行病蔓延作用的效果，并做好灾难备份。国家卫生健康委员会和江苏省卫生健康委员会整理了从1月23日到3月15日更新的COVID-19确诊感染病例数据，并运用SEIR模型和Python可视化去拟合和预测感染曲线，去分析部分防控手段的有效性。通过限制人们出行，实行交通管制，能够有效地减少人群聚集性感染的危险。实际情况显示，在江苏2月18日开始无新增病例，3月中旬病例全部治愈清零，模型拟合的结果基本吻合。可见，采取的疫情防控措施是十分有效的，但各个地方仍不能放松警惕，继续执行严格的检测手段，巩固现阶段取得的成果，助力全球抗击疫情。

关键词：COVID-19;SEIR模型;Python;疫情发展拟合;效果评价

中图分类号：C 812 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2020）04-0323-06

Abstract：The new Coronary Pneumonia Outbreak （COVID-19） broke out in Wuhan City，Hubei Province，China.Due to the largest population movement during the Spring Festival，in order to prevent the spread of the virus，the Chinese government adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23，2020.These policies include large-scale quarantine，strict traffic control，and extensive surveillance of suspected cases.However，the impact of these measures on the spread of the epidemic is unknown.It is hoped to demonstrate the effect of travel control measures on the spread of the epidemic and to make disaster backups.The national health commission and Jiangsu provincial health commission collated the updated COVID-19 case data from January 23 to March 15，and used SEIR model and Python visualization to fit and predict the infection curve，so as to analyze the effectiveness of some prevention and control methods.By restricting peoples travel and implementing traffic control，the risk of crowd aggregation infection can be effectively reduced.The actual situation shows that there were no new cases in Jiangsu on February 18，and all cases were cured and cleared in mid-march，and the results of model fitting are basically consistent.It can be seen that the epidemic prevention and control measures adopted are very effective，but local governments should not relax their vigilance，but continue to implement strict detection methods，consolidate the current achievements，and help the global fight against the epidemic.

Key words：COVID-19;SEIR model;python;epidemic development fitting;effect evaluation

0 引言

2019年12月，湖北省武漢市出现了反常的肺炎病毒即新型冠状病毒（COVID-19），并且疫情迅速蔓延，报告指出，此次病毒与2004时期的SARS同源，来自与冠状病毒密切相关的天然宿主蝙蝠[1]。

新加坡曾为了控制疫情将批发市场关闭，开展大众教育活动，并追踪病例接触者[2]，最后结果表明，追踪和隔离对限制大部分地区的传播是有效的[3]。……