广西北部湾经济区土地资源承载力时空变化分析

曾红春 王启名 宁世耀

摘要 从资源水平、生态环境、经济技术和社会发展4个方面选取28个指标，运用熵权法计算各个指标权重，并运用综合评价模型法对北部湾经济区2008—2016年土地资源承载力的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明，从时间上来看，2008—2016年南宁市、防城港市土地资源承载力在研究期内均远高于平均水平，且明显高于其他各市;北海土地资源承载力基本上一直处于平均水平;玉林、崇左、钦州土地资源承载力均处于低水平。从空间差异来看，各市之间的土地资源承载力等级差异较大，南宁市承载力处于高承载力状态;防城港市处于中等承载力状态;其他市均处于较低或低的承载力状态，发展潜力较大。

关键词 土地资源承载力;可持续发展;时空变化;北部湾经济区

中图分类号 F301.2  文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）24-0078-05

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.24.018

Analysis on Temporal and Spatial Changes of Land Resource Carrying Capacity in Northern Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi

ZENG Hong-chun，WANG Qi-ming，NING Shi-yao （Baise University，Baise，Guangxi 533000）

Abstract 28 indicators were selected from the four aspects of resource level，ecological environment，economic technology and social development，the entropy weight method was used to calculate the weight of each indicator，and the comprehensive evaluation model method was used to analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes of land resource carrying capacity in Northern Gulf Economic Zone from 2008 to 2016.The results showed that in terms of time，the carrying capacity of land resources in Nanning City and Fangchenggang City from 2008 to 2016 was much higher than the average level during the study period，and was significantly higher than that of other cities;the carrying capacity of land resources in Beihai City had basically been at an average level;the land resource carrying capacity of Yulin，Chongzuo and Qinzhou were all at a low level.From the perspective of spatial differences，the level of land resource carrying capacity varied greatly between cities，and the carrying capacity of Nanning was at a high level. Fangchenggang City was in a medium carrying capacity state;other cities were in a lower or low carrying capacity state，with great development potential.

Key words Land resource carrying capacity;Sustainable development;Temporal and spatial changes;Northern Gulf Economic Zone

基金項目 广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目（2020KY19018）;百色学院校级自然科研项目（2019KN09）;滇黔桂边革命老区人文精神与社会发展研究基地项目（JDB05）。

作者简介 曾红春（1990—），女，湖南邵阳人，助教，硕士，从事岩溶环境与资源研究。*通信作者，助教，硕士，从事GIS与资源环境遥感研究。

收稿日期 2021-05-27

土地资源是人类社会赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础，是区域经济发展的重要条件[1]。土地资源承载力是指在一定时期内，区域内现有的土地资源对经济社会的支撑能力，反映土地资源对人类的承载规模和强度[2-3]。随着社会经济的迅猛发展，土地资源供需矛盾日益突出，有限的土地资源如何满足大量的需求引起国内外学者的高度关注。……