环境与耕地约束下经济可持续发展

曾祥坤

摘要 农业生产促进经济增长的过程中会产生负外部性，一定程度上造成了经济损失。通过中国2010—2017年东、中、西部省际面板数据，构建了包含耕地和环境要素在内的“绿色索罗模型”，实证分析农业耕地投入和环境污染对经济增长的影响。结果表明：耕地资源对于整体经济增长为正向作用，影响大小依次为中部、东部与西部地区。农药、化肥与地膜等环境外生变量的存在对经济增长呈明显抑制作用但不同区域影响程度不同。在此基础上，应改变传统的“高污染、高消耗、低产出”粗放型生产模式来维持我国经济增长;提升全要素生产率水平，以期促进农业生产过程中的绿色增长，减少耕地使用生产过程中所产生环境负外部性。

关键词 耕地;绿色索洛模型;经济增长;省际面板

中图分类号 S-9文献标识码 A

文章编号 0517-6611（2021）10-0214-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.10.055

开放科学（资源服务）标识码（OSID）：

Sustainable Economic Development under the Constraints of Environment and Cultivated Land—Regional Comparison based on Eastern，Central and Western Region

ZENG Xiang-kun （College of Economics and Management， Tarim University，Alaer，Xinjiang 843300）

Abstract Agricultural production can generate negative externalities in the process of promoting economic growth， which， to some extent， causes economic losses. Based on Chinas 2010-2017 interprovincial panel data， a “Green Solow Model” including arable land and environmental factors is constructed to empirically analyze the impact of agricultural arable land input and environmental pollution on economic growth. The results show that arable land resources have a positive effect on the overall economic growth， with the influence ranked in order of magnitude in the central， eastern and western regions. The increase in agricultural output is influenced by both positive and negative effects of environmental variables. In general， the use of pesticides， fertilizers and mulch has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth， but there are regional differences. On this basis， the traditional extensive production model of high pollution， high consumption and low output should be changed to sustain Chinas economic growth; the total factor productivity level should be raised in order to promote green growth in the agricultural production process and reduce the negative environmental externalities in the production process of arable land use.

Key words Arable land;Green Solow model;Economic growth;Interprovincial panel

农业耕地资源是具有显著外部性的重要战略性资源，耕地资源质量与数量的协调保护对于保障粮食供给不容忽视[1]。近年来，由于工业化、城镇化的进程加快所引发的“用地热”，迫使耕地资源数量快速减少，质量不断下降，耕地生态环境不断受到破坏与恶化。2009—2015年我国耕地数量持续减少，大约每年流失6.44万hm2土地。在休养生息的新时代背景下，必须形成耕地质量与生态的双重保护，才能更好地解决人地矛盾，保护粮食质量安全。耕地资源所面临的环境恶化、城市化占用和粮食增产等多重压力[2-3]，严重影响了中国的可持续发展道路。……