广东海洋经济高质量发展指标体系构建及实证分析

程曼曼 陈伟 杨蕊

摘要：21世纪是海洋的世纪，广东海洋经济连续多年位居第一，随着海洋强国强省等重大战略的实施，广东海洋经济发展面临着新的机遇与挑战。鉴于目前很少有学者对广东海洋经济发展质量构建评价指标体系进行分析，并基于原有数据对最近几年进行预测，以开展深层次的研究来对广东海洋经济高质量发展提出建议。因此文章根据2007—2016年相关统计数据，建立海洋经济发展质量评价指标体系，通过熵权法计算指标权重与最后的综合得分，并通过指数平滑法预测未来3年各一级指标以及综合得分的变化情况，以进行更加全面的分析。针对产业结构分配不合理、海洋科技创新支撑能力不足、生态环境保护力度有待加强等问题，提出将新发展理念贯穿海洋经济高质量发展的全过程、提高科技创新力、加大对生态环境的保护力度等建议。

关键词：广东;指标体系;海洋经济;高质量发展;熵权法;指数平滑法

中图分类号：F2;P74文献标志码：A文章编号：1005-9857（2021）11-0027-07

Construction and Empirical Analysis of High Quality Development Index System of Guangdong Marine Economy CHENG Manman，CHEN Wei，YANG Rui （Guangdong Ocean University，Zhanjiang 524088，China）

Abstract：Guangdong's marine economy has been ranked the first place for many years in China， with the implementation of major strategies such as becolming a maritime power and strengthening provinces， Guangdong's marine economic development is facing new opportunities and challenges. In view of the fact that few scholars had analyzed the establishmert of an evaluation index system for the quality of Guangdong's marine economic development， and few suggestions for the high-quality development of Guangdong's marine economy were carried out by predictions for recent years from in-depth research on the original data. Therefore， the paper established amarine economic development quality evaluation in-dex system based on the relevant statistical data frolm 2007 to 2016， calculated the index weight and the final comprehensive score through the entropy weight method， and predicted the changes in the first-level indicators and comprehensive scores in the next 3 years through the exponential smoothing method for a more comprehensive analysis. The results showed that the irrational distribution of the industrial structure needed to be optimized， the supporting capacity of marine scientific and technological innovation was insufficient， and the efforts to protect the ecological environment needed to be strengthened. Based on the research conclusions， suggestions were put forward that the new development concept should be put forward through the whole process of the high-quality development of the marine economy， the sci-entific and technological innovation ability should bee improved， and the protection of ecological environ-ment should be strengthened.

Keywords：Guangdong，Index system，Marine economy，High-quality development，Entropy method，Exponential smoothing method

0引言

聯合国曾预言21世纪是海洋的世纪，这意味着人类要全面认知海洋、开发利用海洋以及保护管理海洋。我国拥有300万km2余的主张管辖海域，在海洋资源方面有很大的优势，海洋是高质量发展的战略要地[1]，新时代发展蓝色海洋经济具有很好的前景。2013年习近平总书记在中共中央政治局第八次集体学习时强调进一步关心海洋、认识海洋、经略海洋，在致2019中国海洋经济博览会的贺信中又再一次深刻阐述了海洋的重要性，指出海洋孕育了生命、联通了世界、促进了发展，海洋是高质量发展的战略要地，对人类社会生存和发展具有重要意义。……