脱贫人口返贫风险“事前—事中—事后”全过程防控研究脉络

廖冰

摘要：为系统构建返贫风险研究脉络，通过文献研究方法与比较分析方法对国内外主流期刊已有研究文献进行梳理，发现已有返贫风险研究存在以下不足：研究对象多集中于贫困户，难以跟踪农户脱贫后生产生活变化趋势;研究视角多从“事后治理贫困”入手，难以对贫困先期防范预警;研究方法多为单一的指标体系法或者特征指数法，难以实现优势互补。据此构建了返贫风险未来研究脉络并归纳了未来研究趋势（3个转向）：亟需从“贫困人口”转向“脱贫人口”，并厘清脱贫人口返贫机理;亟需从“事后治理贫困”转向事前、事中、事后全过程防控返贫，建立全过程寐防机制，增加多重保障;亟需从“单一的指标体系法或特征指数法”转向“指标体系与特征指数相结合的综合方法”。

关键词：脱贫户;返贫风险;“事前一事中一事后”全过程;研究脉络;展望

中图分类号：F328，F320.2，F323.89文献标志码：A论文编号：cjas2020-0233

The Research Contexts of Preventing Poverty-returning Risks Through the Whole Process of “Before，During，After the Event”for the Population out of Poverty

LIAO Bing1，2

（1College of Economics and Management，Jiangxi Agricultural University，Nanchang 330045，Jiangxi，China;

2Study Center of Sannong，Jiangxi Agricultural University，Nanchang 330045，Jiangxi，China）

Abstract：To systematically construct the overall research contexts of poverty- returning risks，the existing research literature in mainstream journals at home and abroad is sorted out by means of literature research and comparative analysis. It is found that there are difficulties as follows. Most objects of the research are poor households but it is difficult to track the change trend of the production and the life of farmers out of poverty. And it is also difficult to prevent and warn poverty in advance instead of combating poverty after the event. The research methods are mostly from single index system method or characteristic index method，which are difficult to draw on each other's strength. Based on these，the future research contexts of the poverty-returning risks are constructed and the future research trends are summarized as （three transitions）：the research focus should be changed from poverty stricken population to population out of poverty and on clarifying the poverty- returning mechanism;the research perspective should be changed from combating poverty after the event to the whole process of “before，during and after the event”;the method should be changed from single index system method or characteristic index method to the a comprehensive method combining indicator system with characteristic indexes.

Keywords：Households Out of Poverty;Poverty- returning Risks;the Whole Process of “Before，During and After the Event”;Research Contexts;Prospect

0引言

截至2020年11月23日，现行标准下中国近1亿农村贫困人口全部脱贫，832个贫困县全部摘帽，12.8万个建档立卡贫困村有序退出。在脱贫攻坚取得如此决定性成效的同时也应该看到存在的隐忧，脱贫农户大多分散居住在大山林区，自然、地质、气象灾害频发，基础设施薄弱、交通不畅、产业单一、增收渠道狭窄、抵抗外界不确定干扰能力差，家庭禀赋能力较弱，生计脆弱性极强，内生动力不足，加之不可控意外事故、重大疾病等因素，返贫风险客观存在[1]。风险一旦触发，返贫必将形成，这将蚕食脱贫攻坚胜利果实，影响整个脱贫工作的質量。……