3条控制线约束下的哈密市土地利用变化分析及预测研究

马瑞云 张永福

摘要 [目的]掌握哈密市土地利用動态变化情况，为当地的土地资源合理开发与发展规划提供参考。[方法]基于2010—2020年共3期土地利用数据，结合区域特点，整合耕地、林地、草地、水体、建设用地、未利用地6种土地利用类型，在IDRISI中，以基本农田保护区、生态保护红线、城镇开发边界3条控制线作为主要约束条件，使用CA-Markov模型对哈密市土地利用类型的空间分布与时空变化进行分析，并对2025年哈密市土地利用情况进行预测。[结果]2010—2020年哈密市耕地、林地、水体、建设用地面积增加，草地、未利用地面积减少;各地类之间互相转化，其中建设用地与水体变化幅度大，变化速率较快;CA-Markov预测模型精度为0.813 4，结果能够揭示哈密市土地利用时空演变趋势。[结论]在3条控制线约束下得到的预测结果证明2015—2025年变化趋势与2010—2020年的变化趋势基本一致，该方法预测得到的结果可为哈密市土地资源利用管理提供一定的科学参考。

关键词 土地利用变化;三条控制线;CA-Markov模型;哈密市

中图分类号 F 301.2  文献标识码 A  文章编号 0517-6611（2021）23-0076-04

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2021.23.021

Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in Hami City under the Constraints of Three Control Lines

MA Rui-yun1，2， ZHANG Yong-fu1，2

（1.College of Resources and Environment Science， Xinjiang University， Urumqi， Xinjiang 830046; 2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology， Ministry of Education， Xinjiang University， Urumqi， Xinjiang 830046）

Abstract [Objective] To grasp the dynamic changes of land use in Hami City and provide references for the rational development and development planning of local land resources.[Method] Based on the three periods of land use data from 2010 to 2020， combined with regional characteristics， six land use types of cultivated land， forest land， grassland， water area， construction land and unused land were integrated. In IDRISI， three control lines of basic farmland protection area， ecological protection red line and urban development boundary were taken as the main constraints， the spatial distribution and temporal and spatial change of land use types in Hami City were analyzed by CA-Markov model， and the land use situation in Hami City in 2025 was predicted.[Result] From 2010 to 2020， the area of arable land， forest land， water area， and construction land in Hami City increased， while the area of grassland and unused land decreased; there were mutual transformations among various types， among which construction land and water area changed greatly and the rate of change was rapid; the accuracy of Markov prediction model is 0.813 4， and the results could reveal the spatial-temporal evolution trend of land use in Hami City.[Conclusion] The prediction results obtained under the constraints of the three control lines proved that the change trend from 2015 to 2025 was basically the same as the change trend from 2010 to 2020. The results predicted by this method could provide a certain degree of science reference for land resource utilization and management in Hami City.

Key words Land use change;Three control lines;CA-Markov model;Hami City

作者簡介 马瑞云（1994—），男，新疆塔城人，硕士研究生，研究方向：国土资源管理信息技术。通信作者，副教授，硕士生导师，从事国土资源评价方向的研究。

收稿日期 2021-03-09;修回日期 2021-04-07

土地资源作为人类赖以生存的物质基础，研究土地利用覆被变化（Land use cover change，LUCC）能让我们更好地理解地表的物质循环与社会发展的规律[1]。随着社会经济的发展，人类对土地资源的需求量日益增长，20世纪90年代后，全球……