短生命周期产品衰退期订货策略研究

徐雪强+朱丹丹

摘要：随着产品革新速度的提高，消费者偏好的快速变化，制造商很难有效识别短生命周期产品在衰退期的市场需求量，从而影响零售商订货策略的选择。基于衰退期产品特点，采用多时期随机存储模型构建衰退期零售商的订货模型，并使用两阶段的订货模式进行模型研究。以北京地区某时尚品牌女士毛呢大衣某个销售周期内衰退期产品的销售数据为例，通过算例分析，采用二次订货的策略，避免了出现大量积压库存的局面，提高了制造商、零售商的整体利益。

Abstract： With the rapid pace of product innovation and rapid changes in consumer preferences， it is difficult for manufacturers to effectively identify short-lived products in the recession of the market demand， thus affecting the choice of retailers ordering strategy. Based on the characteristics of the products in recession， the multi-period stochastic storage model was used to build the order model of the retailer in the recession period， and the model was studied by two-stage order model. Taking the sales data of the fashion brand ladies woolen coat in a certain period of sales in Beijing as an example， through the example analysis， the second order strategy is adopted to avoid the situation of a large backlog of inventory and improve the overall interests of the manufacturers and retailer.

關键词：短生命周期产品；衰退期；二次订货

Key words： shore-lived products；the recession；the second order

中图分类号：F250；F270 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1006-4311（2017）20-0069-03

0 引言

短生命周期产品分为导入期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期，其衰退期特点：产品需求量持续下降，易造成库存积压。积压的库存不仅给企业自身带来一定的经济损失，同时也造成不同程度的资源浪费。目前有制造商以折扣价格对积压库存回收，构建衰退阶段随机订货模型研究方式。欧美国家最早开始了短生命周期产品订货的研究[1]，国内学者也纷纷开展对短生命周期产品衰退期订货的研究。

Hunter[2]根据服装产品的需求变化，在销售期内销售商采取二次订货的策略，使得销售利润增加了30-50%；Lau等[3]在产品的整个销售周期内，构建了两次订购的决策模型；Donohue[4]提出制造商采取两阶段生产模式来应对销售商的二次订货策略；陈旭[5]等站在双赢的立场，提出制造商为零售商提供两次订货机会的策略；……