规则改革背景下乒乓球三段指标评估法演进与发展趋势研究

徐君伟

摘 要：采用文献资料、专家访谈等方法对三段指标评估法的内涵、科学价值、最新研究成果及应用中存在的问题和发展趋势等进行研究。三段指标评估法自创立伊始，始终在乒乓球技战术分析领域占据主导地位；三段指标评估法的统计指标体系和评估标准亟需修订；2000年以后，以经典三段指标评估法为“始根”，乒乓球技战术分析方法开始向着三段指标评估法自身的不断完善、技术使用效能计算方法、技战术博弈理论分析方法、数理模型构建与数据挖掘技术的应用和多种技战术分析方法与多媒体技术的结合五个方面发展演进；并从不断完善三段指标评估法的统计指标体系，科学修订其评估标准，加强其与多媒体技术的耦合，不断深化与其他技战术分析方法的有机结合等方面对其未来发展趋势进行展望。

关键词：乒乓球；技战术诊断；三段指标评估法

中图分类号：G846 文献标识码：A文章编号：1006-2076（2018）01-0115-07

Abstract：With the methods of literature research and expert interview， this paper has studied the connotation， scientific value and the latest research results of three-stage evaluations， pointed out the existing problems and proposed the development strategies. The result shows that the three-stage evaluations have always dominated the field of techniques and tactics analysis since its establishment； the statistical indicators system and evaluation standard need to be revised； the analysis methods have developed towards the following five aspects since 2000， including： continuous improvement， technique evaluation with effectiveness calculation method， game theory analysis method， mathematical model establishment and the application of data mining technology and a combination of various analysis methods with multimedia technology for technique and tactic evaluation. This paper also gives prospects on the development trend from the aspects of improving the statistical indicator system， revising its evaluation standard， reinforcing its coupling with multimedia technology and deepening its organic combination with other analysis methods of techniques and tactics.

Key words：table tennis； diagnosis of technique and tactics ability； three-stage evaluations

中國乒乓球在世界乒坛保持领先地位接近一甲子的实践证明，在铸造辉煌的众多成功因子中，“以科技支持为重要手段，努力实现科学化训练，对于创造优异的运动成绩起到了重要的保障性作用”[1]。作为乒乓球运动员竞技实力诊断领域中的原创性科研成果，三段指标评估法自1988年创立以来，对于中国乒乓球队在多次世界大赛中夺冠发挥了重要的科技支撑作用，经反复验证，效果良好，因而一直被作为主流技战术诊断方法而沿用至今。……