产业内贸易、FDI对我国三大经济圈CO₂排放影响研究

朱美凤 魏景赋

摘 要：為探索产业内贸易、FDI对我国三大经济圈CO2排放的影响，文中基于STIRPAT模型，采用2000—2014年中国三大经济圈（即环渤海经济圈、长三角经济圈、珠三角经济圈）的面板数据，在人口、地区人均GDP、技术水平指标的基础上，引入FDI、产业内贸易指标对三大经济圈CO2排放的影响因素进行了检验。结果表明：人口因素和地区人均GDP对三大经济圈CO2排放存在正向影响；技术水平对CO2排放量有负向影响；FDI与产业内贸易指标对CO2排放的影响则存在区际差异，具体而言：产业内贸易对CO2排放的影响因地区而异，对环渤海经济圈起增量作用，而对长三角、珠三角经济圈CO2排放起减量作用；FDI流入量对环渤海经济圈CO2排放影响大于长三角、珠三角经济圈。另外，产业内贸易对CO2排放的影响是由产业结构决定的。因此，针对各个经济圈的产业特点制定碳减排计划将是发展低碳经济的重要举措。三大经济圈内各级政府只有优先实施科技兴贸战略，以创新为基点推动高新技术产品的产业内贸易，从而优化贸易与产业结构，才能为全国性节能减排做最大贡献。

关键词：产业内贸易；碳排放；STIRPAT模型；FDI；低碳经济

中图分类号：F 746.2/.9 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1672-7312（2018）05-0606-05

Abstract：In order to explore the impacts of intra-industry trade and FDI on the CO2 emission of Chinas three major economic circles，based on the STIRPAT model，this paper used the panel data of the three major economic circles in China（i.e.Bohai Economic Circle，Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta）from 2000 to 2014.And on the basis of population，region per capita GDP and technological level index，this paper introduced FDI and intra-industry trade indicators test the influencing factors of CO2 emission in the three major economic circles.The results show that the factors of population and region per capita GDP have positive effects on the CO2 emission of the three economic circles.However，the technical level has negative influence on CO2 emission，and the influences of FDI and Intra-industry Trade Index on CO2 emission are different.Specifically，the impact of intra-industry trade on CO2 emission varies from region to region，which plays an incremental role in the Bohai Economic Rim and a modest contribution to the CO2 emission in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta economic regions；the impact of FDI inflows on the Bohai Economic Rim CO2 emissions greater than the Yangtze River Delta，Pearl River Delta economic zone.In addition，the impact of intra-industry trade on CO2 emission is determined by the industrial structure.Therefore，formulating a carbon emission reduction plan in light of the industrial characteristics of various economic circles will be an important measure for developing a low-carbon economy.Only by giving top priority to implementing the strategy of rejuvenating trade through science and technology and pushing intra-industry trade of hi-tech products on the basis of innovation can the governments at all levels in the three major economic circles optimize their trade and industrial structure so as to make the greatest contribution to the national energy conservation and emission reduction.

Key words：intra-industry trade；carbon emissions；STIRPAT model；FDI；low-carbon economy

0 引 言

20世纪60年代，Balasa（1966）等学者关注到了欧洲经济共同体内部的专业化生产及由此带来的贸易大多发生在同一贸易分类目录下，由此，人们才对产业内贸易的研究产生了极大的兴趣[1]。其他学者又发现产业内贸易在一定程度上有利于解决劳动力就业问题，提高工业技术水平，增加贸易利益以及带动产业升级[2]。……