服装流行色的季节差异及关联性研究

周捷 毛倩 李健

摘要： 为揭示服装流行色的季节差异及其变化规律，以2012—2019年中国服装流行色定案为研究对象，依据中国色彩标准体系（CNCS）对色彩进行量化，采用统计分析与灰色关联分析，探究季节服装流行色的波动规律与色彩特征。结果表明：服装流行色呈现一定的季节差异，不同色彩存在不同的季节模式，即春夏以高明度、高纯度和暖色系为主，秋冬则会增大低/中明度、低/中纯度和冷色系色彩的使用比例;秋冬服装流行色会受到春夏流行色的影响，但不同色彩的关联度存在差异;秋冬服装流行色的波动较大，春夏服装流行色的波动则比较平缓。

关键词： 服装流行色;季节差异;统计分析;灰色关联分析;关联性

Abstract： In order to reveal the seasonal differences and changing rules of fashion colours，the study took the fashion colours of China in 2012-2019 as the research object. Chinese colour standard system（CNCS） was used to quantify colours. This paper explored the fluctuations and colorific features of seasonal fashion colours with statistical analysis and grey correlation analysis. The results show that fashion colours have certain seasonal difference，and different colours have different seasonal patterns. In other words，the warm colours with high lightness and purity are the main colours of spring and summer. However，fashion colours in autumn and winter may increase the cool colour with low/medium lightness and low/medium purity. Fashion colours in autumn and winter are influenced by those in spring and summer，but the correlation degree of various colours differs. The fluctuation of fashion colours in autumn and winter are larger than that in spring and summer.

Key words： fashion colours; seasonal difference; statistical analysis; grey correlation analysis; relevance

服裝流行色是在一定时间内，反映时尚趋势及大众喜好的颜色，对服装设计与服饰产品营销影响较大[1]。受诸多因素的影响，流行色呈现出明显的季节性与不确定性[2]。在服装销售过程中，商家依据流行色的变化规律，可以有效调节上货波段和实际销售时点[3]。为此，许多学者开始研究流行色的预测方法[4-6]，提出了灰色模型[7]、BP神经网络[8]、蜂群演化算法[9]、可持续预测系统[10]和大数据分析[11]等流行色量化预测方法。但这些定量方法的预测值与实际值均存在一定的误差。

受内部和外部因素的双重影响，春夏与秋冬服装流行色之间也有双重关系，即差异性与关联性[12]。探究季节与服装流行色之间的关联，可以为流行色预测提供科学依据。……