基于应变能释放的大华北地震活动预测

潘洁 张伟峰 孙亮亮 肖攀 李露露

摘  要：震情窗是指某些能以微震活动形势灵敏反映区域应力场变化的特殊部位。特定时间段和空间范围内地震活动的应变能释放给了我们了解该时空域内地壳应力的变化和地震危险性预测提供了可靠的依据，近年来得到了地震分析预报等相关人员的特别关注。应变能与地震能量释放密切相关，应变能这一指标作为阈值使物理意义更加的明确，预测效能高于频次指标，对应地震空间分布更符合区域应力窗口的动力学背景，利用地震窗应变能参数研究霍山地区小震活动状态，在地震趋势判定上可能会有一定的优势，在一定程度上可以改变先前偏重从事地震活动性角度研究的片面性，对深化“窗口”效应对地震趋势判断的物理基础提供帮助。

关键词：应变能  震情窗  大华北  地震活动预测

Abstract： Seismic information window refers to some special parts that can sensitively reflect changes in regional stress field with micro seismic activity. The release of strain energy from seismic activity within a certain time and space provides important information for people to understand the crustal stress changes in the time and space and to predict earthquake risk， which has attracted the attention of earthquake analysis and forecasters. Strain energy is closely related to seismic energy release. Strain energy index is used as a threshold to make the physical meaning more clear. The prediction efficiency is higher than the frequency index. The corresponding seismic spatial distribution is more in line with the dynamic background of the regional stress window. The seismic window strain energy parameter is used to study the Huoshan area. The activity state of small earthquakes may have certain advantages in determining the seismic trend， which can improve the one-sidedness of the previous focus on seismic activity research， and further deepen the physical basis of the "window" effect in determining the seismic trend.

Key Words： Strain energy; Seismic information window; Great North China; Seismic activity prediction

该文对海城余震窗（39°～41°N ;121.5°～123.5°E）、唐山余震窗（39°～40.5°N;117.5° ～119.5°E）、邢台余震窗（36.2°～38.5°N;114° ～116°E）、霍山余震窗（31°～31.9°N ;115.7°～116.5°E）、长岛余震窗（以37.95°N;120.73°E为中心点，30 km为半径）开展综合分析方法研究，探讨大华北地区中等及中等以上地震的对应关系，为该地区中等及中等以上的地震预测提供一定的帮助[1]。

经过统计，自1970年以来发生在大华北地区的地震，符合该次研究条件的共有107次（余震除外），进一步筛选发现有73次地震在发震前1年的时间内“震情窗”出现了频次超限的异常现象，再从频次超限异常发生到地震发生来看，有31次地震发生在频次超限异常期间，42次地震发生在频次超限异常结束的半年之内[2]。……