在城购房农民家庭消费影响因素实证研究

李胜杰 杨春河 马颖

摘 要：农村剩余劳动力以家庭式流动进入城镇成为新趋势。农民进入城镇成了打工、消费的农民工，实现了从“生产工具”到“消费主体”的转变。本文采取经济计量学方法，运用Tobit回归模型分析影响在城购房农民家庭消费的各种因素。结果表明，在城工资性收入、丈夫目前职业类型、双薪家庭对消费有显著正的影响效果；同住人口数与消费有显著负的影响效果，贷款购房的家庭各项消费支出会减少；对此提出提高在城购房农民家庭消费水平的建议。

关键词：农民家庭；消费；影响因素；Tobit模型

中图分类号：F124.7 文献标识码：A DOI 编码：10.3969/j.issn.1006-6500.2018.06.006

Empirical Study on Influencing Factors of Household Consumption of Farmers in Cities： Take Kongjiazhuang Village Nandagang District as an Example

LI Shengjie，YANG Chunhe，MA Ying

（College of Business， Hebei Agricultural University， Baoding， Hebei 071000， China）

Abstract： The rural labor force has been transferred in large numbers， and the farmers have entered the town with the family flow to become the new trend. Farmers enter the town become rural migrant workers in cities who work and consume. This paper adopted the econometric method to analyze the factors affecting the household consumption of farmers in the city by using Tobit regression model. The results showed that in urban wage income， husband's current career type， dual-income households have a significant positive effect on consumption. There was a significant negative effect on population and consumption. Consumer spending on home purchases would be reduced， and proposed suggestions to improve the consumption of farmers' households on this basis.

Key words： farmer family； consumption； influencing factors； Tobit model

從房价调控到楼市限购，关于购房的相关政策不断出台，相关条例的实行并没有削减全国人民的购房热情。不同于第一代农民“进城打工、回乡消费”，越来越多的农民以家庭式流动进入城镇，在城镇生活消费，他们渴望在城镇立足。加之适婚人口增加，迫于大城市高房价，越来越多的农民家庭选择在本地城镇购房。他们在城镇从事建筑、餐饮、服务等劳动密集型行业，带动了城市建设和经济的发展，同时作为消费者，成为城镇消费市场的重要组成部分。农民进入城镇打工、消费，实现了从“生产工具”到“消费主体”的转变。

消费活动既是经济活动的起点，又是经济活动的终点，消费是拉动经济增长的动力。我国农民工是一个非常庞大的消费群体，研究农民工消费问题对解决我国“三农问题”、扩大内需和促进经济增长具有很强的现实意义[1]。……