基于变权灰云模型的深远海域海上风电场选址

赵阳 王凤武 张云鹏

摘要：为实现深远海域海上风电场能源经济效益最大化，同时保障风电场周边海域的船舶通航安全，提出一种基于变权灰云模型的深远海域海上风电场选址方法。建立深远海域海上风电场选址评价指标体系，采用G1法求取指标常权权重，引入变权理论修正常权权重从而确定变权权重。利用正态云模型替代传统的白化权函数，构建变权灰云模型，对场址进行定性定量评价，依据评分值确定最优场址。实例计算分析表明，最优场址在能源经济效益和船舶通航安全方面均处于优势水平，变权灰云模型在深远海域海上风电场选址中具有良好的适用性和有效性。

关键词： 海上风电场; 变权理论; 灰云模型; 灰云聚类

中图分类号： U698; P751; TM614    文献标志码： A

Abstract： In order to maximize the economic benefit of offshore wind farms in far-reaching sea areas and ensure the navigation safety of ships in wind farms’ sea areas， a method based on the variable-weight gray cloud model is proposed for the offshore wind farm site selection in far-reaching sea areas. The evaluation index system of the offshore wind farm site selection in far-reaching sea areas is established， the constant weights of indices are calculated by G1 method， and the variable weight theory is introduced to modify the constant weights to determine the variable weights. The normal cloud model is adopted to substitute the traditional whitening weight function， the variable-weight gray cloud model is constructed to evaluate the sites qualitatively and quantitatively， and the optimal site is determined according to the score value. The example calculation analysis shows that the optimal site is advantageous in terms of energy economic benefit and ship navigation safety， and the variable-weight gray cloud model has good applicability and effectiveness in the offshore wind farm site selection in far-reaching sea areas.

Key words： offshore wind farm; variable weight theory; gray cloud model; gray cloud clustering

0 引 言

海上風力发电已成为清洁能源发展的新趋势。从风能资源角度分析，海上风电能达到陆地风电能量效益的120%～140%，而且海上风电还具有零排放、占地少、运行稳定等诸多优点。近年来，随着新技术的发展以及岸基配套电网设备的完善，海上电力输送、运行维护成本正不断降低，许多国家和地区都将发展海上风电的目光逐渐由近海投向了深远海域。与近海风电相比，深远海域风电开发具有较多优势，如风能资源更为丰富、地域更为宽广、装机容量更大、对海洋环境和船舶通航的影响更小等，深远海域风电发展前景更为广阔。

海上风电场选址作为海上风电场建设的前期工程，涉及海洋资源开发、海洋自然生态保护、船舶航行安全、风电场运行维护等诸多因素，如何协调各种因素，实现能源经济效益最大化以及保障风电场水域船舶通航安全是选址工程的关键。……