基于耦合协调模型的我国制造业 与物流业协同度现状与趋势研究

杨丽 张世豪

摘  要：制造业是物流业发展的前提，物流业是制造业发展的保障。我国要向制造强国转变，物流业协同发展至关重要。国家发展改革委员会联合交通运输部等部门联合发布的《推動物流高质量发展形成强大国内市场若干意见2019》中明确提出：促进现代物流业与制造业深度融合。文章采用耦合协调模型量化分析我国2009～2019年两业协同发展状况，发现我国两业子系统有序度仍处于磨合阶段，协调度则处在中级协调阶段，两业子系统有序度与协调度均存在较大的提升空间;采用CRNN网络模型对2020～2025年两业协同发展状态进行预测，发现物流业发展相对平稳，制造业发展波动明显，“十四五”时期，制造业是两业协同发展的重点和难点。根据两业协同的发展现状和发展趋势，文章从政府、制造业以及物流业角度提出促进两业协同发展的政策建议。

关键词：制造业;物流业;耦合协调;发展趋势

中图分类号：F250    文献标识码：A

Abstract： The manufacturing industry provides conditions for the development of the logistics industry， and the logistics industry provides support for the manufacturing industry. To become a manufacturing power country， coordinated development of the logistics industry is essential. In 2019， the National Development and Reform Commission， the Ministry of Transport and other departments jointly issued“Several Opinions on Promoting the Development of High-quality Logistics and Forming a Strong Domestic Market”， which clearly stated： Promote the deep integration of modern logistics and manufacturing. This paper uses a coupled coordination model to quantitatively analyze the coordinated development status of the two industries in China from 2009 to 2019. There is a large room for improvement， the CRNN network model is used to predict the coordinated development of the two industries from 2020 to 2025. It is found that the development of the logistics industry is relatively stable， and the manufacturing industry fluctuates significantly. During the“Fourteenth Five-Year Plan”period， manufacturing is the focus and difficulty of the coordinated development of the two industries. According to the current status and development trend of the synergy between the two industries， the paper proposes relevant policy recommendations to improve the level of synergy between the two industries from the three levels of government， manufacturing， and logistics.

Key words： manufacturing; logistics; coupling and coordination; development trend

0  引  言

制造业是我国提升国力、实现现代化的重要前提和基础之一。作为物流业务需求方，制造业一定程度上决定着物流业发展容量;而物流业发展水平的提高对于制造业核心竞争力的提升来讲也意义重大，因此推动制造业与物流业协同发展至关重要。特别是在经济全球化日渐成熟的今天，制造业的转型升级发展更加需要现代物流业做支撑，协同发展。制造业对物流需求具有数量大、种类多、专业化强的特点，涉及……