林产品贸易对林业经济增长的影响研究

华炎 张敏新

摘  要：随着经济的高速增长，我国林产品进出口贸易也在不断的发展，林业经济规模得到进一步扩张，因此研究林产品贸易对于林业经济的影响有助于林业行业的可持续稳定发展。文章以1990～2017年林业行业的发展数据为基础分析林产品进出口贸易对林业经济增长的影响。通过研究发现，林产品进出口贸易与林业经济增长之间具有持续均衡的协整关系，从长期来看林产品出口贸易和进口贸易都对林业经济增长有正向关系，促进了林业经济的发展，林产品出口贸易对经济增长影响的贡献程度大于林产品进口贸易对经济增长影响的贡献程度。最后根据得出的实证结果，针对如何通过林产品贸易有效促进林业经济增长和稳定发展提供一些政策建议。

关键词：林业经济增长;林产品进出口贸易;VAR模型

中图分类号：F274    文献标识码：A

Abstract： With the rapid growth of economy， the import and export trade of forest products in China is also developing， and the scale of forestry economy has been further expanded. Therefore， studying the influence of forest product trade on forestry economy is helpful to the sustainable and stable development of forestry industry. Based on the development data of forestry industry from 1990 to 2017， the VAR model is established， and the relationship between import and export trade of forest products and forestry economic growth is analyzed by cointegration test， impulse response function and variance decomposition method. It is found that there is a sustained and balanced cointegration relationship between the import and export trade of forest products and the growth of forestry economy. In the long run， the export trade and import trade of forest products have a positive relationship with the growth of forestry economy. Promote the development of forestry economy. Finally， based on the empirical results， some policy suggestions on how to effectively promote the stable development of forestry economic growth through forest product trade are provided.

Key words： forestry economic growth; import and export trade of forest products; VAR model

0  引  言

隨着我国对进出口贸易的不断重视，中国的经济达到了新的发展高度。与此同时，林业经济的规模随着进出口贸易的发展不断扩大。改革开放伊始，我国的林产品进出口总额为355亿元，林业GDP总额为3 678.1亿元，到2017年林产品进出口总额14 838.989亿美元，林业GDP总额71 267.072亿美元，林产品进出口贸易对林业经济增长的影响日渐显现。中国林产品进出口贸易对林业经济是否存在促进作用？针对这一项问题的研究，对于我国如何制定林业发展计划以实现林产品贸易自由、促进林业经济可持续发展，提供了重要的参考依据。……